Philadelphia Eagles (4-9-1) vs Dallas Cowboys (5-9)

As of this writing, the Eagles still have a shot to win the division, which is fortunate or unfortunate depending on what side of that argument you are on, however for that to happen the Redskins have to lose and the Eagles will have to take care of business tomorrow vs the Cowboys to keep that hope alive. The job will not be as easy as the first win where Andy Dalton missed the game and the Eagles faced Ben Narducci. Additionally the Eagles secondary is more banged up this time around. However offensively the Eagles will also look different as they will have Sanders and Desean Jackson who missed the first contest, but perhaps the biggest change will be at QB where Jalen Hurts will be making his 3rd start for the Eagles after two impressive outings vs the Saints and the Cardinals. Hurts will face a Cowboys defense that has been playing much better of late especially at causing turnovers and getting to the QB. Hurts will need to keep what he has been doing and escaping the pocket when he feels it closing on him and getting rid of it when he needs to. I think this game will come down to protecting the football and establishing the run, whichever team can do that should take the W and keep their playoff hopes alive with a Redskins loss.

General Information
Posting Rules and Guidelines
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New to the Eagles? Take a look at our New Fan Page!
Score Prediction Contest

Date
Sunday, December 27th, 2020

Game Time	Game Location
4:05 PM - Eastern	AT&T Stadium
3:05 PM - Central	1 AT&T Way
2:05 PM - Mountain	Arlington, TX 76011
1:05 PM - Pacific	Wikipedia - Map

Weather Forecast
Stadium Type: Retractable Roof
Surface: Grass
Temperature: 72°F
Feels Like: 72°F
Forecast: Clear. Windy in the morning.
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Cloud Coverage: 6%
Wind: Northwest 12 MPH

Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite/Opening Line: Eagles -2.5
OveUnder: 49.5
Record VS. Spread: Philadelphia 5-9, Dallas 4-10

Where to Watch on TV
FOX will broadcast Sunday’s game to a regional audience. Kenny Albert will handle the play-by-play duties and Jonathan Vilma will provide analysis. Shannon Spake will report from the sidelines.
TV Map - Week 16 TV Coverage Map

Radio Streams
List of Eagles Radio network member stations with internet broadcast availability
Radio.com 94.1 Desktop Streaming

Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.

Location	Station	Frequency
Philadelphia, PA	WIP-FM	94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA	WCTO-FM	96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey	WENJ-FM	97.3 FM
Levittown, PA	WBCB-AM	1490 AM
Northumberland, PA	WEGH-FM	107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA	WPPA-AM	1360 AM
Reading, PA	WEEU-AM	830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WAFL-FM	97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA	WEJL-FM	96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WAFL-FM	97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WEJL-AM	630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WBAX-AM	1240 AM
Williamsport, PA	WBZD-FM	93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE	WDEL-FM/AM	101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA	WSOX-FM	96.1 FM

Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.

Location	Station	Frequency
Philadelphia, PA	LA MEGA	105.7 FM
Allentown, PA	WSAN	1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ	WIBG	1020 AM; 101.3 FM

Dallas Radio

Dallas Cowboys Radio Network Brad Sham returns for his 42nd season in the Dallas Cowboys radio booth. Beloved by Cowboys fans, Sham's award winning play-by-play has provided the soundtrack to many of the most memorable moments in Dallas Cowboys history. Babe Laufenberg returns as the Network's full-time color analyst. A fixture on the sideline, veteran reporter Kristi Scales provides instant updates from the field.

National Radio
NA

Satellite Radio

Station	Eagles Channel	Cowboys Channel
Sirius Radio	SIRI 137 (Streaming 825)	SIRI 83 (Streaming 823)
XM Radio	XM 380 (Streaming 825)	XM 225 (Streaming 823)
Sirius XM Radio	SXM 380 (Streaming 825)	SXM 225 (Streaming 823)

Eagles Social Media	Cowboys Social Media
Website	Website
Facebook	Facebook
Twitter	Twitter
Instagram	Instagram
Snapchat: Eagles	Snapchat: cowboys

NFC East Standings

NFC EAST	Record	PCT	Home	Road	Div	Conf	PF	PA	Net Pts	Streak
Football Team	6-8	.429	3-4	3-4	3-2	4-6	302	295	+&	1L
Cowboys	5-9	.357	3-4	2-5	1-3	4-6	339	433	-94	2W
Giants	5-9	.357	2-5	3-4	3-2	4-7	122	311	-67	2L
Eagles	4-9-1	.321	3-3-1	1-6	2-2	4-6	163	361	-58	1L

Series Information
The Dallas Cowboys lead the Philadelphia Eagles (69-54)
Series History
Head to Head Box Scores
First Game Played
September 30th, 1960 at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, TX. Dallas Cowboys 25 - Philadelphia Eagles 27
Points Leader
The Dallas Cowboys lead the Philadelphia Eagles (2659-2424)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 4-5 against the Cowboys
Mike McCarthy: 4-2 against Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs Mike McCarthy: McCarthy leads 2-0
Quarterback Record
Jalen Hurts: Against Cowboys: 0-0
Andy Dalton: Against Eagles: 2-0
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Jalen Hurts vs Andy Dalton: First Meeting
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Cowboys lead the Eagles: 10-8
Record @ AT&T Stadium: Series tied: 6-6

Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 22 - Cowboys No. 24
Record
Eagles: 4-9-1
Cowboys: 5-9
Last Meeting
Sunday, November 1st, 2020
Eagles 23 - Cowboys 9
Despite committing four turnovers and being held to a season-low seven first half points, Wentz and the Eagles bumbled their way to a crucial division win over an injury-ravaged Dallas Cowboys team led by rookie quarterback Ben DiNucci. The Cowboys opened the scoring on the game's opening drive with a 49-yard field goal by Greg Zuerlein. After a fumble by Wentz gave the Cowboys the ball back, the Eagles regained possession on a DiNucci fumble and took a 7–3 lead on Jalen Reagor's first career touchdown reception. The Cowboys responded with another Zuerlein field goal following Wentz's second fumble, and took a 9–7 halftime lead on a 59-yard field goal (mirroring the halftime score in Dallas in 2017, also played on Sunday Night Football). On the Eagles' second-half opening drive, Wentz would be picked off by Cowboys rookie cornerback Trevon Diggs, who returned the ball to the Dallas 31, but the Cowboys failed to capitalize when Zuerlein's ensuing 52-yard field goal attempt sailed wide right. The Eagles used the momentum swing to regain the lead 15–9 on a 9-yard Travis Fulgham touchdown reception. In the fourth quarter, T.J. Edwards strip-sacked DiNucci, and the ensuing fumble was recovered and returned 53 yards for a touchdown by Rodney McLeod. With the 23–9 win, Philadelphia improved to 3–4–1 on the season heading into their Week 9 bye.
Click here to view the Video recap
Click here to view the Stats Recap

Last 10 Meetings

Date	Winner	Loser	Score
11/1/2020	Eagles	Cowboys	23-9
12/22/2019	Eagles	Cowboys	17-9
10/20/2019	Cowboys	Eagles	37-10
12/9/2018	Cowboys	Eagles	29-23
11/11/2018	Cowboys	Eagles	27-20
12/31/2017	Cowboys	Eagles	6-0
11/19/2017	Eagles	Cowboys	37-9
1/1/2017	Eagles	Cowboys	27-13
10/30/2016	Cowboys	Eagles	29-23
11/8/2015	Eagles	Cowboys	33-27

Injury Reports	Depth Charts
Eagles	Eagles
Cowboys	Cowboys

2020 “Expert” Picks
Week 16 - "Expert" Picks

2020 Team Stats
Eagles Season Stats
Cowboys Season Stats

2020 Stats (Starters/Leaders)

Passing

Name	CMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	RAT
Hurts	49	89	55.1%	647	5	1	92.3
Dalton	165	256	68.0%	1549	11	6	85.6

Rushing

Name	ATT	YDS	YDS/G	AVG	TD
Sanders	149	810	73.6	5.4	5
Elliott	211	832	64.0	3.9	5

Receiving

Name	REC	YDS	YDS/G	AVG	TD
Fulgham	35	497	45.2	14.2	4
Cooper	82	952	68.9	11.6	5

Sacks

Name	Sacks	Team Total
Graham	7.0	44
Lawrence	5.5	26

Tackles

Name	Total	Solo	Assist	Sacks
Singleton	98	62	36	1.0
Smith	133	74	59	1.5

Interceptions

Name	Ints	Team Total
Singleton/McLeod/Mills/Riley/Epps	1	5
Diggs2	7

Punting

Name	ATT	YDS	LONG	AVG	NET	IN 20	TB	BP
Johnston	66	2909	66	47.7	41.3	21	5	0
Niswander	16	759	58	47.4	43.6	7	1	0

Kicking

Name	ATT	MADE	%	LONG	PAT
Elliot	18	13	72.2%	54	20/22
Zuerlein	34	27	79.4%	59	28/31

Kick Returns

Name	ATT	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Scott	25	532	21.3	46	0
Pollard	29	705	24.3	67	0

Punt Returns

Name	RET	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD	FC
Ward	17	116	6.8	22	0	17
Lamb	21	168	8.0	27	0	7

League Rankings 2020

Offense Rankings

Category	Eagles Stat	Eagles Rank	Cowboys Stat	Cowboys Rank
Total Offense	332.9	22nd	366.4	15th
Rush Offense	125.6	10th	109.2	19th
Pass Offense	207.4	27th	257.1	11th
Points Per Game	21.6	25th	24.2	18th(t)
3rd-Down Offense	37.0%	29th	40.5%	20th
4th-Down Offense	41.6%	27th	53.3%	18th(t)
Red Zone Offense (TD%)	62.5%	14th	53.5%	26th

Defense Rankings

Category	Eagles Stat	Eagles Rank	Cowboys Stat	Cowboys Rank
Total Defense	360.9	20th	383.6	24th
Rush Defense	125.6	23rd(t)	161.8	32nd
Pass Defense	235.1	16th	221.8	8th
Points Per Game	25.8	21st	30.9	31st
3rd-Down Defense	37.2%	6th	49.2%	29th
4th-Down Defense	38.9%	4th	47.4%	12th
Red Zone Defense (TD%)	65.8%	25th	62.8%	16th(t)

Team

Category	Eagles Stat	Eagles Rank	Cowboys Stat	Cowboys Rank
Turnover Diff.	-7	27th(t)	-6	25th(t)
Penalties/Game	6.4	24th	6.1	22nd
Penalty Yards/Game	49.8	18th	51.3	21st(t)

Connections
Eagles S Jalen Mills was born in Dallas and grew up in DeSoto, TX and went to Desoto High School.
Cowboys DB Coach Al Harris played 5 seasons for the Eagles from 1998-2002.
Cowboys DT Justin Hamilton played one season for the Eagles in 2017.
Cowboys Assistant Director of Video Stephen Gagliardino began his NFL career in 1995 as a ball boy with the Philadelphia Eagles when he was 16 years old, working training camp and game days at Veterans Stadium. He did that for four seasons before moving over to the Eagles video department in 1999, where he worked full time as an intern for three seasons (1999-2001).
Many Cowboys fans were born and raised in the Greater Philadelphia Area, however have no ties to Dallas nor have ever been to the city.
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox and Cowboys QB Dak Prescott played together at Mississippi State University when Prescott was a red shirt freshman.
Eagles OT Lane Johnson is from Groveton, TX and has family who are Cowboys fans including his grandmother who was told “Shut up, if you want to see 75” while she was rooting for the Cowboys.

2020 Pro Bowlers

Eagles	Cowboys
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter)
DE Brandon Graham (Starter)
C Jason Kelce (Starter)

General
Referee: Shawn Smith
Jalen Hurts is the only QB in NFL history to amass 500+ passing yards and 150+ rushing yards in their first 2 career starts (Week 14 vs. New Orleans – 167 passing, 106 rushing; Week 15 at Ar-izona – 338 passing, 63 rushing). In Week 15 at Arizona, Hurts became the first Eagles QB to register 300+ passing yards, 3+ passing TDs and 1+ rushing TDs in a single game since Michael Vick on 11/15/10 at Washington.
Fletcher Cox (T-5th among NFL DTs with 6.5 sacks this season) has collected all of his six career Pro Bowl nods in the last six seasons, tying Pete Pihos (1951-56) for the 2nd-longest streak in franchise history, behind Reggie White (seven, 1987-93). His six Pro Bowls are also the most ever by an Eagles DT.
Jason Kelce now owns the most Pro Bowl selections (four) by a center in Eagles history as well as the 2nd-most by any offensive lineman in team history, trailing only Jason Peters (seven). Kelce has started 103 consecutive regular-season contests, which is the longest active streak among NFL centers.
Brandon Graham has earned his first career Pro Bowl honor after leading the Eagles defense in sacks (7.0), TFLs (12) and QB pres-sures and hits (36) through 14 games. He is one of only three NFL players with 7.0 sacks, 12 TFLs and 2 FFs this season (also Haason Reddick and Za’Darius Smith).

Draft Picks

Eagles	Cowboys
WR Jalen Raegor	WR CeeDee Lamb
QB Jalen Hurts	CB Trevon Diggs
LB Davion Taylor	DT Neville Gallimore
S K’Von Wallace	CB Reggie Robinson II
OT Jack Driscoll	C Tyler Biadasz
WR John Hightower	DE Bradlee Anae
LB Shaun Bradley	QB Ben DiNucci
WR Quez Watkins
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
LB/DE Casey Toohill

Notable Off-season Additions

Eagles	Cowboys
S Will Parks	QB Andy Dalton
DT Javon Hargrave	TE Blake Bell
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman	OT Cameron Erving
CB Darius Slay	DE Aldon Smith
	CB Maurice Canady
	K Greg Zuerlein

Notable Off-season Departures

Eagles	Cowboys
S Malcom Jenkins	WR Tavon Austin
CB Ronald Darby	WR Randall Cobb
RB Jordan Howard	WR Devin Smith
WR Nelson Agholor	TE Jason Witten
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai	OL Cameron Fleming
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill	C Travis Fredrick
RB Darren Sproles	DE Michael Bennett
DT Timmy Jernigan	DE Kerry Hyder
LB Nigel Bradham	DE Robert Quinn
	DT Maliek Collins
	DT Christian Covington
	DT Daniel Ross
	CB Byron Jones
	S Jeff Heath
	K Kai Forbath

Milestones
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (29) needs 1 sacks to move up to 18th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DT Jerome Brown

Food for Thought
Dallas' Existential Connection to Philadelphia
::Movie Trailer Guy:: "In a world where people thought having someone named *Dallas Goedert on the Eagles was awkward, the truth is infinitely more awkward yet.*" If I were to tell you the county and city of Dallas might have never come to be, were it not for a prominent political figure in Philadelphian, Pennsylvanian, and national politics named Dallas would you very justifiably lord it over Cowboys fans? Over his career, George Mifflin Dallas served as the Mayor of Philadelphia, US Attorney for the Eastern District of PA, PA Attorney General, US Senator representing PA, Ambassador to Russia and later to the UK, and Vice President under Polk. He'd had Presidential ambitions, but they were dashed when his state support base of iron and coal interests turned their backs upon his tariff support about-face. Well, that and his unfortunate support for popular sovereignty, as it pertained to slavery. The prevailing theory is that in 1841 when the settlement of Dallas, Texas was established, it was named after this gentleman. And thus, Dallas would not exist today if it weren't for Philadelphia. You're welcome.

Matchups to Watch
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles Passing Attack vs. Cowboys Pass Defense
Dallas has a terrible defense that has profited off terrible QB play in their current two game win streak. They enter this contest Sunday going up against Jalen Hurts, who is easily the best QB they've faced since they got rolled by Lamar Jackson. This isn't to go out of the way and praise Jalen Hurts, it's just acknowledging the clear truth that Jalen Hurts is already better than Brian Allen and Nick Mullens. This Cowboys defense is short on talent and coaching which makes this matchup pretty juicy for the Eagles, even if they have a below average WR room. I've long said that Hurts should be an upgrade from Wentz whenever they decided to bench him as the 2020 version of the player was one of the worst QBs in the NFL. All Hurts had to do to be an upgrade from Wentz was eliminate the crushing negative plays, which he has. Additionally, he's been pretty good as a passer, showing growth from his time at OU in this short period of time. You'll never mistake him for having a live arm, but he plays with poise and throws with anticipation. That kind of time and anticipation can create a lot of plays through the air like we saw against the Cardinals. This offensive coaching staff still has the kid gloves on for Hurts with what they are calling, but what the offense has done thus far should be able to move the ball against this mediocre defense. Dallas struggles to defend anything which gives Reagor a chance to actually do something. Desean Jackson will play Sunday and should make an impact in however many snaps he's able to play.
Eagles Rushing Offense vs Dallas Rushing Defense
The only thing Dallas does worse than pass defense is rush defense. Since Hurts has been named the starter in Philly, the Eagles rushing attack has gotten much better. The single biggest reason for this is how defenses have to account for Jalen Hurts in the running game. The Eagles offensive line has been quite banged up this year but is still pretty good at creating holes in the running game for the RBs. Hurts naturally adds a different element to this area of the offense. Miles Sanders is slowly getting better at reading rushing lanes and actually getting tough yards vice trying to bounce carries outside. Oftentimes the OL will create rushing lanes for modest gains that can keep the offense on schedule but the RB tries to do too much and costs the offense yards. The Cowboys are the worst in the NFL allowing 5 yards per carry to opposing offenses. They've allowed the most 20+ rushing plays in the NFL. They've allowed the most first downs rushing. And they've allowed the most yards rushing in the NFL. This is a bad rush defense going up against the rushing attack that has always been able to create on the ground when they commit to it enough. I wouldn't expect a different outcome here on Sunday.
Eagles Secondary vs. Dallas Wide Receivers
This is one of the biggest mismatches in the game on Sunday but has less of a significance with Andy Dalton in at QB vice Dak Prescott, though it is a bigger challenge than Ben DiNucci. The Eagles will have Darius Slay on Sunday after clearing the concussion protocol this week. He'll likely see a lot of Amari Cooper on Sunday even though Schwartz hasn't used Slay a ton as a travel corner this season. Even if he does, the Cowboys still have Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb at receiver and they should be expected to win their matchups against the Eagles secondary consistently on Sunday. Avonte Maddox will miss the game; even if he played, he’s not good enough to give Gallup or Lamb much of a fight. As always, the Eagles will need their defensive line to create pressure and force Andy Dalton into mistakes which will aid the secondary; that's a matchup I would expect the Eagles DL to win pretty easily. It's another thing to ensure the Eagles secondary has this WR room in check. This secondary needs to play disciplined throughout this contest to give the defensive line time to feast. One major feature of opposition game planning we regularly see used against our defense is the quick passing game. Part of this is due to the nature of our secondary. The other reason for this is it helps neutralize a pass rush. The difference between 2.3 and 2.5 seconds in average time to throw is massive in a DL/OL mismatch like this one. Dalton is a fine backup QB at this point in his career and he is more than capable of making a mediocre secondary like Philly pay for mistakes.

Special thanks abenyishay and MikeTysonChicken for his help in creating this Game Preview.

Before we dive in, if you want to participate in the annual Call Your Shot season predictions contest, you can find it here.
It's FINALLY coming! Welcome to the 2020 MLB Season! We are so glad you are here. Don't let the length of this post scare you, we just wanted to consolidate all the relevant information that people have questions about into one place to start the season off. This is your survival guide for the 2020 season, it should have all the pertinent information to answer most of your questions!
If you are a brand new fan I'd recommend going through most of it, if you're a veteran you'll know which sections you'll want to read by their headings. My goal here is that both new and returning fans can learn how to better enjoy the season and know what's going on on Baseball this year. Okay, take some time and read through what you want to read through below!
This is the fourth year of doing this. Every year I go through the previous years comments to find things that should be added or corrected for the next edition, so if you have any great resources or information that you think would be beneficial to add, please comment it below!
Sections:

• Introduction for new and renewed interest fans.
• Rule changes for 2020
• Finding a Team
• Knowing Where Different Teams Stand
• Baseball
• Your Team's Sub
• Twitter, Podcasts, and Other General News/Analysis Sources
• The Statistical Titans: Baseball Reference and Fangraphs
• Where to watch? Your TV and Streaming Guide
• MLB.tv
• MLB At Bat App
• How to watch baseball.
• Where to watch highlights and game recaps.
• TL;DR: Find a way to enjoy the game.

Introduction for new and renewed interest fans.

Baseball normally has a long season. I don't just mean that in terms of time between opening day and the World Series (which can be considered long as it is), but also the 162 games played in 183 days, 18-20 times against the same 4 teams each. It can be daunting, and many people lose interest by "the dog days" of June and July. This year things are going to be a little different. With only 60 games on the schedule (assuming we make it through without a major clubhouse covid outbreak that cancels games versus that team) every game is going to matter about 3x as much as one in a normal regular season. Tensions will be high, but we might not feel it because there won't be that much crowd noise. THAT SAID - they're still playing 60 games in 66 days, which means almost every day for the next two months isn't just packed with baseball, they're packed with YOUR FAVORITE TEAMS baseball, which while exciting after months without any American sports in the regular season (MLS - a tournament is not the regular season) can end up feeling overwhelming when you just finished watching a late game go into extras then wake up to realize there's an afternoon game on in six hours.
This guide is meant to help you if you wish to avoid being one of those who feels overwhelmed and loses interest a couple weeks after Opening Day.
First and foremost if you are a new fan or newly returning, you must remember one thing: you do not need to watch every game. Many football fans, and even some basketball and hockey fans, find this difficult, they're used to setting aside a few nights a week to watch their team, and they can watch all the games. Baseball isn't like that. For the next two months, your team will only have 6 days where they won't be playing a game. And some of the games they play will start as early as 9:20am (Pacific Time), others will end after 1am (Eastern Time). If you miss a game it's okay, odds are there's another one tomorrow. If you miss a week, no big deal, hell if you get busy for a few months and aren't able to watch you team, that's not an issue, because you can still follow your team.
Baseball is a game to be followed. In the old days it meant picking up the morning paper and checking the box scores. Now it means being able to have a final score texted/tweeted/messaged/emailed/what-evered to you the minute the game ends, or rolling over in bed when you can't sleep and grabbing your phone to check the West Coast scores. It means being able to check reddit in the morning to see any breaking news from across the league, or catch a story you missed. We live in a time where you can go to MLB.com and get a recap of every game from last night in less than 10 minutes. Honestly, baseball was made to be consumed, and the technology age makes it easier than ever, whether you want to spend hours every day pouring over stats and analysis, or 15 seconds to see how your team and their playoff rivals did today.
The rest of this guide is mostly dedicated to ways that you can help yourself follow your team, and if you have time follow the entirety of MLB.
Anyways, enough rambling, TL;DR Don't worry if you miss games, there'll be one tomorrow.

Rule Changes for 2020

For this season only (or so they say...):

• The NL will utilize the DH full time.
• In extra innings the person in the batting order immediately before the lead off hitter will start on second base.
• Games suspended due to rain will continue play at a later date rather than be washed out and restarted.
• Arguing within six feet of an umpire or participating in a fight will be met with heftier fines and suspensions this yaer.
• Pitchers will be allowed a wet rag to be brought out from the dugout in lieu of being able to lick their fingers for better grip.
• Each team has a 20 extra players in their "taxi squad" in addition to their active roster and 40-man roster.
• Active rosters will start at 30 players, then will be cut to 28 after two weeks, then 26 after four weeks.
• Spitting is not allowed.
• Non-social distanced celebrations are not allowed.

Permanent (as any rule change can be in baseball) rule changes for 2020 and beyond:

• Three batter minimum - pitcher entering the game must face a minimum of three batters unless they complete an inning.
• The MLB Active Roster is expanded from 25 players to 26 players.

Finding a Team

I always recommend following the local team since you'll have more access to news about them in the local media and should be able to get their radio broadcast, as well as TV broadcasts of them if you have cable/satellite/streaming, and depending on where you're at the occasional over the air game, but if you don't live by a team or don't want to follow the local team, or are just looking for a second team to follow, I wrote this in depth guide to picking a team that's the right fit for you.

Knowing Where Different Teams Stand

Every year ESPN, Sports Illustrated, FOX, NBS, and every other sports related site puts out their season previews. These are great for getting a basic rundown of what is going on with each team, and a simple google search will bring up a plethora of possible articles to read.
If what you really want is a fans perspective on what each team's expectations condensed into a few short comments, I'd highly recommend going through each teams day from our annual "Why will X team exceed expectations?" series. All the previous posts are linked in the Astros thread.

Baseball

Alright, so plugging baseball on baseball seems a bit redundant, but I think it's a good reminder that this is a great hub for all your MLB news throughout the season while still letting you see the occasional amazing college/minor league/foreign league performance.
During the season there are a number of features to keep you informed of all the goings on around baseball.
Every day of the season (and a portion of the offseason) we have General Discussion threads we call Around the Horn. These are great places to ask questions and discuss anything that you want to know about baseball but don't feel like it deserves it's own post. In the Around the Horn post you'll be able to see a full schedule of what is going on around Baseball every week.
Here are the weekly features:
Daily: Nightly Pick'Em - A six year running contest to pick the result of one game every day. Details can be found in this thread.
Monday: Power Rankings - A team of 30 fans from every team in baseball, led by masochist fearless leader kasutori_jack, releases their composite power rankings of the 30 teams. This leads to well thought out discussions and some in depth analysis, as well as salty fans crying about how their team is underrated (there may be more of the latter than the former, but it's still a great way to keep your finger on the pulse of how every team is doing).
Monday (Unofficial) - The last few years thekmanpwnudwn has posted a State of the Subreddits post that gives the top post from each team's subreddit from the last week. This is a great roundup post for staying up to date on what all the different team fandoms are feeling, and helps you catch any milestones you might have otherwise missed.
Tuesday: Weekly Awards - Led by lemcoe9 a different team of a fan from every team releases the results of their weekly (and monthly) voting for who the best position player and pitcher was since the last vote was taken. Once again, a great way to keep track of which players are on hot streaks, and who's dominating the league.
Wednesday: Wild Card Wednesday - Each week a new contest, trivia game, or just out of the box fun thread will be stickied! Got an idea? Let the mods know!
Thursdays: Division Discussions - We rotate between the Easts, Centrals, and Wests to do some more in depth talk about where the playoff races and teams stand. If you only have time for one baseball thread every week and want to keep up with the league, this is the thread to set aside time for.
Friday: Trash Talk/Compliment/Complaint - FRIDAYS ARE FUN DAYS, WE ROTATE BETWEEN TRASH TALK, COMPLIMENT, TRASH TALK, AND COMPLAIN THREADS! TRADITION STATES ALL COMMENTS BE IN ALL CAPS AND ENDING IN EXCLAMATION POINTS! WE ROTATE RATHER THAN HAVE A SET DAY FOR EACH ALL SEASON BECAUSE IT'S A LONG SEASON AND ANY ONE OF THE THREE THREADS CAN GET STALE FAST IF YOU DON'T LEAVE TIME FOR MORE AMMUNITION!
Saturday: Saturday is when we usually plug in occasional things that don't necessarily deserve weekly attention. Things like in depth stat discussions, memorobilia sharing, craft projects, etc.
Sunday: Game of the Week - Sunday is the one day a week where we get together as a subreddit to watch a baseball game together, since it's the one time every week where there's only one game going on and there's guaranteed to be a game. The Sunday Night Baseball game thread is usually posted a couple hours before the first pitch.
In addition the playoffs, and select premier match-ups (mostly at the very end of the season where there is a lot riding on a regular season game) we host game threads for all baseball users. These are neutral thread, for more info on less neutral ones skip to the next section. We may experiment with game threads in baseball for the MLB.tv Free Game of the Day this year.
In addition to all these features, it really is a great place to keep up with breaking news and highlights. It'll be posted here minutes after someone tweets it, and long before it's on MLB.com. Team beat writers get the stories first, and it's easier to check in here a couple times a day than follow every one of them. Plus there's something the kids are calling "dank memes" (but not too many, because us mods don't allow too much moisture to get into the servers).

Your Team's Subreddit (And other team subs as well)

The mods at baseball have one goal - help you have the best possible reddit baseball experience, and a LOT of that is helping you get connected to other fans of your team (which feels a little like a cop-out because it means less work for us if you're doing more on your team's sub, but your team's mods aren't complaining.)
One of the main draws of team subs (other than in depth discussion with like-fan-minded users, getting breaking news and analysis on your team, team-memes, and other reddit discussions that come up from a group of individuals who can agree on one thing) are game threads. At this time (to the best of my knowledge) every team sub hosts game threads for their team's games, and you can easily access them in the sidebar during the season by clicking on the team's logo in the schedule (we're working on getting that up to speed, MLB changed some parts of their RSS and background data and we've had to work around that to get our automated system back up). We like to keep the game threads in team subs for a few reasons, one of which is we want to support the team subs and send them relevant traffic when we can because they really do an amazing job, another is because with 15 games a day this place would look like crap if we had game threads for every game or let users post them as they please (we've tried it, it blots out news, discussion, and highlights and looks like crap, baseball doesn't have only a couple days set aside for games or focus on marquee match ups like many other sports, it's 2430 games played in 183 days and is better when it's spread out.)
Even if you're not a game thread person though, getting connected with a good team sub can make disappointing seasons more bearable, and great seasons more exciting, and I know plenty of users that said that their team's sub basically keeps them fans. Team subs are also a great place to get connected to...

Twitter, Podcasts, and other General News/Analysis Sources

Going to be honest here, I don't use twitter and I do not frequently read other people's blogs. I know many people do and enjoy it, and I believe the best way to find the people to follow/sites to visit that interest you the most are to hang around your team's sub and note which Tweets/Sites that are linked to that most often peak your interest. Your list of favorite baseball writers is going to be different than my favorite list, and finding the right twitter personalities, podcasts hosts, and bloggers can make game analysis more interesting for you even if your team is playing like crap and it's the middle of July.
Here are some common suggestions for some general baseball twitter accounts and podcasts to get you started, but like I said, find what you like and follow those:
Twitter

Account	Account	Account
@MLB	@Ken_Rosenthal	@Buster_ESPN
@jonmorosi	@mlbtraderumors	@MiLB
@JeffPassan	@MLBInjuryNews	@BNightengale
@keithlaw	@based_ball	@SamMillerBB
@jonahkeri	@BaseballAmerica	@brooksbaseball
@BenLindbergh	@ChrisCotillo	@mike_petriello
@MJ_Baumann	@FanRagSports	@TheAthleticMLB
@fangraphs	@baseballprospectus	@baseball_ref
@daynperry	@CBSSportsMLB	@CespedesBBQ
@GrantBrisbee	@JonHeyman	@cantpitch
@MLBRosterMoves	@darenw	@extrabaggs

Podcasts

Account	Account	Account
Effectively Wild	Baseball Tonight	The Ringer

The Statistical Titans: Baseball Reference and Fangraphs

Literally every day you will find a link or to BaseballReference.com or Fangraphs.com here, it's a given, and it's because these are the two most extensive free baseball databases that are easy to navigate. If you want to look up anything about baseball history, check Baseball Reference, if you want to look up how players stack up with non-proprietary advanced metrics or read an insightful blog post about why someone is overrated/underrated or overperforming/underperforming, check Fangraphs. With these two sites you have all the stats and figures you need to make a competent argument for basically anything you want with a little cherry picking.
A large part of the modern baseball world is statistics and you're going to find yourself getting more immersed in discussing the game if you can get a handle on all the terms getting thrown around. If you are brand new to baseball, take a little while to get to know the game before diving into these sites, but if you have a handle on the basics and are ready to know what this WAR everyone is talking about is, dive into the glossaries and find the statistics.
When you get the basics, creating your own analysis doesn't seem as daunting, and one of the reasons I love baseball is that I can deconstruct pretty much every play and find some meaning behind it. If you are like that and enjoy numbers, theoretical projections, and breaking things down into simple figures before reconstructing them into something long and beautiful, then learning the basics of sabrmetrics will make you a baseball fan for life. If, on the other hand, you just want to enjoy the game for the beautiful pastime that it is by watching, then we've got a little bit to go through...

Where to Watch? - Your TV and Streaming Guide

So a big part of baseball is, you know, actually being able to watch the games (though as I talk about at the end, it might not necessarily be the case for you, and that doesn't mean you can't enjoy baseball, skip down and see what I'm talking about in the final section).
First off, if you are looking for free games to watch, you are in luck! MLB.tv streams one game a day for free on MLB.com and Yahoo.com. These games are subject to local blackouts (details on those in the MLB.tv section) but are definitely worth watching if you're trying to see if you'll enjoy baseball, or just need a free baseball fix. Facebook is also streaming one game a week during the season for free. The other free games available are from May 18 to July 13 on Saturday night and Thursday nights in September when FOX airs games on their OTA affiliated networks. Believe it or not, TV antennas still work in most areas, and these games are free to watch. Some teams also broadcast select games on OTA networks in their region.
Okay, so now the more expensive stuff. If you have even the most basic cable package (or log in information) you probably have ESPN. ESPN airs games every Sunday Night as well as Wednesday Night and Opening Weekend. These games are also available on ESPN Go.
You also probably have a regional sports channel. This is where almost all of your local teams games will be aired. Here is a decent breakdown of every team and what network they are carried on.
TBS is also on even the most basic networks, they air games the final 13 Sundays of the regular season in the afternoon.
FS1 and FOX carry baseball games almost every Saturday of the season, and MLB Network carries games pretty much every day.
A list of currently scheduled national broadcasts is available here, not all games have been chosen so there will be more added to the list.
For all these networks (except for the Dodgers, Orioles, and Nationals regional networks) there are options to stream the games online provided you have cable login information for the channel. During the playoffs FS1, TBS, and MLB Network will carry most of the games, with ESPN carrying a wild card game and FOX carrying the World Series.
Now there are also streaming services that grant access to most of the previously mentioned channels:

• Sling TV Orange package gets you ESPN, ESPN 2, and TBS.
• Sling TV Blue package gets you FOX, FS1, FS2, TBS, and most regional sports networks.
• Youtube TV gets you FOX, ESPN, ESPN 2, FS1, TBS, MLB Network, and some regional sports networks.
• HULU Live gets you FOX, ESPN, ESPN 2, FS1, FS2, TBS, and your regional sports networks.
• Playstation Vue Access gets you FOX, ESPN, ESPN 2, FS1, FS2, and TBS.
• Playstation Vue Core adds MLB Network to the Access channels.
• Playstation Vue Sports Extra adds regional sports networks in addition to your other channels.
• AT&T TV Now Live a Little gets you FOX, ESPN, ESPN 2, FS1, and TBS and your regional sports networks.
• AT&T TV Now Just Right adds MLB Network to the Live a Little channels.
• AT&T TV Now Go Big adds FS2 to the Just Right channels.
• FUBO Premier gets you FOX, FS1, and your regional sports networks

Also, ESPN+ will carry select games pretty much daily throughout the season.

MLB.TV - the Ultimate Fan Investment

Alright, so a few things to cover with this, first of all YOU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO LEGALLY STREAM IN MARKET GAMES IF YOU LIVE IN THE UNITED STATES. MLB.tv uses your IP address to see where you are located, and if it pings back that you are in a team's home market it will not let you watch the game LIVE. Here is where you can find what games MLB.tv will black you out from. National broadcasts on ESPN, FOX, and TBS are also subject to blackouts within the United States (MLB Network games are not). Before you ask, yes there are less than legal ways to get around this (spoofing your IP address, subreddit dedicated to mlb streams, etc.), but I won't be talking about those in detail here. IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA, YOU WILL HAVE NO BLACKOUTS.
Even if you are blacked out, you will be able to watch the game 90 minutes after it finishes, so if you work a late shift or stay up late it might be worth it for you anyways even if you only want to follow one team.
Military members and college students, don't forget to apply your 35% discount!
"But I don't want to watch EVERY out of market game, I just want to watch MY team!" Cool, for $25 less there's a single team option that will allow you to watch all your team's non-blacked out games! Personally, I'd pay the extra $25 for the opportunity to watch every Kershaw, Bumgarner, and Scherzer start, or put the Cubs on in the background while working on a Friday afternoon, but to each their own.
"But I don't want to commit for a full year!" That's okay, there's a monthly option as well in case you know there are months where you can't watch as much.
Some of the fun features of MLB.tv include the ability to watch four games at once and quickly swap your audio from one to another (seriously, I'm never on commercial break when I'm watching baseball, unless there's only one game on I'm able to watch it all, and in September that's huge) and condensed games. What are condensed games? They go through and cut out all the time between pitches and innings, meaning if you want to watch a whole game in less than a half hour (or are searching desperately for a play to make a .gif or streamable out of that for some reason isn't considered a highlight) it's really easy. If you're someone who really wants to get into the game but can't figure out how to grind through watching a full game, Condensed Games are great for keeping up with a team while you learn the little details between pitches that somehow make watching the catcher twiddle his fingers exciting for some fans.
Also, new this year, MLB has added some great baseball documentaries to your MLB.tv subscription, giving you access to more than just games for the first time.
In addition, there are two great resources to enhance your total immersion into baseball if there are multiple games going on. Please note for both of these you must already be logged into MLB.tv to make them work. The first, and most basic, is Brooks Baseball's MLB.TV Redzone. It will automatically take you to the highest leverage game going on, and will automatically shift you to another game between innings OR if another game enters a higher leverage situation. For a more personalized touch, The Baseball Guage has MLB.TV Game Changer which lets you customize your preferences so MLB.tv will always switch to the game that is most relevant to you. This is great if you play fantasy and want to keep up with your players, are waiting for someone to hit a milestone, or if you want to make sure your action is broken into to follow a no-hitter in progress.
It also gives you a free subscription to...

MLB AtBat - The Most Underrated Way to Stay Connected to Baseball

MLB AtBat is MLB's official application. It comes in two versions, the free version which has ads but is useful for keeping up to date with all the scores, and the paid version ($19.99 for the year of $2.99 monthly) which gives you access to ad-free content, Gameday on your mobile device, and (most valuable) access to every team's radio stream for every game during the season and postseason completely blackout free. If there's a day game, you can bet I'm listening to it at work, if I'm mowing the lawn on a Saturday I'm listening to a game, when I can't sleep at night, on comes a West Coast game. To get the paid version you must download the free version, then subscribe within the app, or log into an MLB account that has MLB.tv.
Baseball was made to be on the radio, it's a sport that is very easy to follow the action with the right announcer. At work (or school) it's great because you can half listen, and when the announcer gets excited you can instantly tune back in to hear what's going on. This is the most underrated way to stay connected to your team throughout the year. Before I could afford MLB.tv, this was the way to go, and it honestly makes me question every year whether getting the MLB.tv package is worth is when I can get 80% of the entertainment value from listening to the games (and every year I manage to forget to unsubscribe, for many reasons listed above).
Gameday on mobile is also a great feature, it lets you quickly check in on the action during brief recesses in meetings (or under the table during meetings), or breaks between classes (or under a desk in classes). This is honestly my primary means of keeping track of Twins games throughout the year. My wife thinks I'm crazy when I could just watch the game, but instead am nervously checking my phone every couple minutes. IF I WATCH I JINX THE TEAM, HONEY!

How to watch baseball?

So this is a question that we get from many new fans who are just trying to figure out what the hell is going on and why people find this game so fascinating. I'll get the elephant in the room out of the way, yes there are some "boring" parts of watching baseball on TV. The camera fans to a batter spitting and adjusting his gloves, the pitcher adjusts his crotch then licks his fingers, random shots of a bored looking manager, etc. When you are actually at the ballpark you can be watching where the catcher and fielders set up to try to predict the pitch that is coming (read The Hidden Language of Baseball by Paul Dickson for some great insight into how to interpret this), but on TV it's not usually the case. This is where I have some suggestions for new fans trying to get into it.
First off, if you are looking for just a relaxing day, embrace the slow pace with a beer and veg out on the couch while watching. It's meant to be slow and relaxing (until it gets tense and exciting, usually with runners on). Seriously, when was the last time you just sat and did nothing? Mid July afternoon games are a perfect way to reach that zen of half-consciousness, until something happens to get you sucked into the action.
Another option to stay engaged is keeping score. I find keeping score relaxing and looking back through a scorebook can be fun to see what you were doing a few years ago (except for that damn unfinished scorecard from 2015 where A-Rod hit the most predictable home run in Twins-Yankees history and I sent my scorecard flying to the other side of the room). As NPR once put it, keeping score is a knowledge making activity, and if you have the time and patience for it it is a great way to learn the game. There are a couple different guides to keeping score, and most scorebooks/cards will have a brief example of how to do so. If you have any questions, the Around the Horn thread is a great place to ask!
Gamethreads are another way to get together with other baseball fans and pass the time between pitches, especially in team subs you get to know the regulars and conversations start to wonder away from baseball at times throughout the game, and that's fine. Baseball is an excuse to enjoy a summer day.
For those that want to actually understand what is going on during that time, though, there are some options. Watching Baseball Smarter by Zack Hample (who despite his reputation on this subreddit knows some stuff and actually pops in from time to time to comment on different things) is a good starting place for new fans. Baseball for Dummies and The Complete Idiots Guide to Baseball are also good starting points for those willing to sit and read for a little bit.
For those who don't want to read a book, I guess I can touch on what I'm looking for between pitches. A big part of baseball is pitch selection, so scouting out a pitchers repertoire of pitches is a good starting point, BrooksBaseball.net has great cheat sheets on every pitcher in the game, and PitcherList.com has a visual example of each pitcher's pitches so you can see what you can be looking for. Anyways, I mention that because the whole reason the catcher is twiddling his fingers behind the plate is to go over with the pitcher what pitch is going to be thrown. What I'm watching for between pitches is where the catcher is setting up behind the plate and guessing which pitch is going to be thrown. A 2-0 and 3-1 count are known as hitters counts because the pitcher needs to throw a strike or risk walking the batter, when the count reaches either of those pay attention, because the hitters going to be looking for his perfect pitch and there's probably going to be some action on the field. 0-1, 0-2, and 1-2 are pitcher's counts, look for curveball, slider or other somewhat nasty pitch to be thrown to get the batter to swing at a bad pitch, or a fastball inside to catch them off guard. If you have any questions about this, go ahead and ask in an around the horn thread.

Where to watch highlights and game recaps.

There are many many places to see highlights and game recaps, this is not an exhaustive list, but is a good start.
For highlights, bigger highlights will often be posed here on baseball a few minutes after they occur, if you wish to post them please familiarize yourself with the subreddit rules. They also appear relatively quickly on MLB.com in each games Gameday area. For a pretty slick collection of highlights from across MLB, https://baseball.theate is a great place to exclusively watch highlights.
There are a few ways to get great game recaps. If you have MLB Network, every day Quick Pitch is an hour-long show that recaps every game from the previous day. It usually starts after MLB Tonight (about 10pm EDT) or whatever game MLB Network is showing finishes up, and runs until 10am EDT the next day. MLB.com also puts out recaps of every game by the next morning, usually a 2-5 minutes quick rundown of highlights that can be found on the game recap. It also puts out Fastcast videos on youtube and their website every morning which has a brief rundown of all the games from the previous day. Here's an example of a Fastcast from two seasons ago.
If you want one concise place to see most of these, efitz11 was amazing last season and posted video links to every game recap and fastcast in the daily Around the Horn thread. Here's an example. I am unsure if they plan to continue it this year, but it would be surely appreciated!

TL;DR Finding what you enjoy about the game.

When it boils down to it, baseball is about finding entertainment and enjoyment, and don't let anyone try to tell you how to enjoy baseball. If you want nothing to do with statistical analysis and just want to enjoy what's going on on the field, don't let anyone tell you you aren't enough of a fan, and if you want to dissect a player into their strengths and components using statcast and advanced metrics don't let anyone tell you you're reading into the game too much. You can follow one team, and only one team, or you can follow multiple teams, don't let anyone tell you you're not a true fan for wearing another team's gear or enjoying their games. You might enjoy bat flips and flamboyance, or reserved speedy home run trots. You might not even enjoy physically watching a game (especially not if your team isn't playing), but find yourself loving keeping track of your team through the season and tracking your players or maybe just the thrill of the standings race and scoreboard watching or maybe you just love all the numbers that get thrown around and arguing about their relevancy. That's okay, eventually I believe enjoyment of the game itself will come, but even if it doesn't, the long baseball season is still creating a place of enjoyment for you, and that's what matters. If you have any questions, once again, feel free to ask them in our daily Around the Horn thread, or below in the comments, or if you really want to feel free to PM with questions and I'd be happy to answer.
So watch games this week and join in the discussion here, you'll naturally find yourself gravitating towards certain players or teams and enjoying different aspects of the game. Baseball is a long season, find what you enjoy, stick to it, dwell on it, and enjoy it.
TL;DR for the TL;DR - Baseball is fun

It's been a crazy year, but college basketball begins today and that includes the ACC! For the next month or so it's mostly out-of-conference games with some intermittent conference games in mid-December. The meat of the season will begin on December 29th as the league moves to predominantly conference play.
There will be predictions and power rankings threads posted every Thursday (or end of day Wednesday) starting tomorrow. So check those threads out! There isn't quite as much time to get in predictions or power rankings before the next slate of games as there is for football, but it's still a lot of fun. :) I have also converted the current betting discussion thread to include a space for basketball betting and that is posted every Tuesday-ish. (See here for this week's thread.)
For the games happening today, see here for the schedule. Nova vs BC at 9 PM is the marquee game of the night, but Clemson vs Miss State at 8:30 PM should also be fun, and I think UNC vs Charleston at 6 PM should be closer than advertised.
Enjoy!!

Alright, yesterday I created a quick match thread to calm down the increasing flow of new redditors on the sub, we went up to 3,598 online users on the subreddit at some point...
So today, let's have a serious, interesting and calm discussion about what happened during the game yesterday.

Atalanta 1 — 2 Paris Saint-Germain

Quarterfinals

Venue: Estádio da Luz
Attendance: Unkown
Referee: Anthony Taylor (ENG)
Kick-off: 21:00 local.

Lineups

Paris Saint-Germain lineup 4-4-2: Navas; Bernat, Kimpembe, T. Silva (Captain), Kehrer; Gueye, Marquinhos, Herrera; Neymar Jr., Icardi, Sarabia
Atalanta lineup 3-4-2-1: Sportiello; Toloi, Caldara, Djimsiti; Hateboer, De Roon, Freuler, Gosens; Gomez, Pasalic; Duvan Zapata

L'EQUIPE RATINGS

MATCH REPORT

GOALS:

• [1]-0 - Mario Pasalic (27')
• 1-[1] - Marquinhos (90')
• 1-[2] - Choupo Moting (90+3')

MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

• CBS Extended Highlights
• UEFA Highlights
• Optus Sports Highlights

STATISTICS:

	Atalanta	PSG
Shots (on target)	9 (4)	16 (6)
Ball Possession	39%	61%
Passes	367	593
Distance Covered	108.2 kms	104.9 kms
Fouls	29	13
Corners	4	3
Offsides	2	0
xG	0.58	3.29

FULL STATISTICS
FULL MATCH REPORTS:

UEFA: "Tuchel's side pull off stunning late comeback."

Paris were so nearly the first to land a blow, Neymar racing clear in the third minute only to slot wide with just Marco Sportiello to beat. Atalanta soon found their feet, with Hans Hateboer’s back-post header – smartly saved by Keylor Navas – serving notice of their growing intent.
La Dea’s ascendancy was rewarded before the half-hour when Duván Zapata played the ball neatly into the path of Mario Pašalić, whose first-time effort from just inside the penalty area arced perfectly past Navas.
Paris carved relatively little out of their superior possession for much of the second half, at least until the 90th minute when Neymar squared for Marquinhos to tap in from close range.
Crestfallen, Gian Piero Gasperini's side had barely caught their breath when substitute Kylian Mbappé raced down the left and crossed for fellow replacement Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting to help himself to an added-time winner.

The Guardian: "PSG's late, late double ends Atalanta's Champions League dream" by Barney Ronay

In the end it took £400m of attacking talent, 93 minutes of increasingly frantic football, and a man who mustered up five goals in a single year at Stoke to wrench a thrilling Champions League quarter-final the way of Paris Saint-Germain.
It had to be Neymar, one way or another. The world’s most expensive footballer had played for much of the game like a man trapped inside another kind of storyline, finding space fluently but shooting at goal like a man wearing wooden clogs.
Gian Piero Gasperini’s Atalanta underdogs had played with familiar verve to lead 1-0 with 90 minutes already up. At which point PSG’s labouring star machine finally found some relief.
Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, on as a 79th-minute substitute, swung a fine cross into the box, and the ball was deflected in off a combination of an Atalanta defender and Marquinhos.
Three minutes later, with extra time looming, Neymar played an extraordinary, high-pressure pass, taking the ball in a small space outside the area, freezing the moment, then sliding the ball inside José Palomino to meet the run of Kylian Mbappé. His low cross was equally precise. Choupo-Moting turned the ball into the net to set up a semi-final with either RB Leipzig or Atlético Madrid next Tuesday.
Atalanta will remain the wider story and not just because of another stirring show from this high-intensity team of low-cost parts. A Champions League quarter-final represents an all-time high, albeit one that will be coloured by other emotions. The horrors of March in Bergamo are well-documented. This is a region still processing its grief. Freewheeling success on the football field is not a fix or a balm for this kind of real-life pain. But all things considered, it is not a bad place to start.
The other story is, of course, Neymar, and a step into fresh territory for Thomas Tuchel’s version of that oddly brittle PSG star vehicle. Neymar remains, for all the outstanding moments, an object of some frustration among those baffled by the choice to move at his peak to an environment as lukewarm as Ligue 1.
And yet, Neymar did deliver and did so when his team needed it most. There are stronger opponents in the draw but not many better attacks, with Mbappé likely also to be fit for the next round.
The Estádio da Luz had provided an agreeably haunting stage for the latest instalment of midsummer Covid-bal. The late evening kick-off meant Lisbon was at least mercifully cool, a step down from the predicted mid-August firepit.
Atalanta had Marco Sportiello in goal, with Josip Ilicic absent for domestic reasons. PSG were without Ángel Di María and Marco Verratti, with Mbappé on the bench.
The action was frantic from the start. It took Neymar two minutes to produce an astonishing miss, running in on goal unimpeded from the centre circle, then shanking the ball five yards wide of the right-hand post.
Unconcerned by their own suicidally high defensive line, Atalanta set about besieging the PSG end. With 10 minutes gone Hans Hateboer drew a clawing save from Keylor Navas and the game settled into a series of crisp, direct Atalanta attacks, broken up by the occasional white-shirted counter.
For a while that powerful PSG midfield began to dictate its more stately rhythms but it was Atalanta who took the lead. Duván Zapata found space just outside the box, tumbling over as the ball ran on to Mario Pasalic. His first-time shot zinged into the top corner.
The response was familiarly staccato. Neymar produced a nutmeg on Pasalic then pinged a shot just wide. Otherwise Atalanta held their high line and swarmed around the ball, their combinations zippy and urgent where PSG seemed to be playing through a midsummer haze.
Neymar had time before the break to miss another presentable chance, blasting miles over the bar after seizing on a terrible pass from Hateboer and sending Tuchel into mild frenzy in his dugout.
Tuchel has something agreeably pale and gaunt about him at the best of times, striding about the touchline looking like a sad-eyed victorian wraith. In Lisbon, left leg encased in a surgical boot, he could be seen shielding his brow and flinching in horror at times in that first half.
Mbappé, his remaining ace, was sent out to warm up at the interval. And PSG did start with more purpose after the break. Neymar continued to find space but still lacked any sense of edge. A low free-kick on 50 minutes was his fourth shot at goal, his third off target.
With 31 minutes to play Mbappé was on, replacing Pablo Sarabia. His impact was instant, a series of surges down the left offering a threat where PSG had been reliant on Neymar’s twists and spins.
Atalanta flooded that side, surrounding Mbappé with five defenders at times. It looked like being enough, right up until that extraordinary ending.

La Gazzetta dello Sport: "Atalanta, going out like this hurts! Pasalic deludes, but PSG overturns everything in the recovery minutes" by Francesco Fontana

Nerazzurri ahead 1-0 until the 90', then the mockery: Marquinhos' draw and Choupo-Moting's overtaking goal. The Parisians went to the semi-finals and Mbappé's entry was decisive.
Players in tears over an incredible result, unbelievable stuff. Atalanta lost 2-1 on PSG, killing the minutes from 90 minutes (Marquinhos' goal) to 93 minutes, when Choupo-Moting signed the overtaking after Pasalic's great goal at 27 minutes of the first half. The Champions League quarter-finals speak French, in the semi-finals Tuchel's team will go there and now await the winner of Leipzig-Atletico Madrid, on the pitch tomorrow night. In any case, despite the defeat, the Goddess can return to Bergamo with a very high head.
Compared to the hypothesis of the eve there is no news in Atalanta's house: Gasperini bets on Caldara, Hateboer and Pasalic, preferred to Palomino, Castagne and Malinovskyi. So, in his 3-4-2-1, space to Sportiello in goal. In defence also Toloi and Djimsiti with De Roon-Freuler on the middle and Gosens on the left. In front, of course, Gomez and Zapata. On the other side, without Verratti and Di Maria (out for injury and disqualification respectively), Tuchel chooses the 4-3-3 with Keylor Navas between the posts, behind Kehrer, Thiago Silva, Kimpempe and Bernat. In midfield Herrera, Marquinhos and Gueye with Sarabia, Icardi and Neymar in attack (Mbappé starts on the bench). English referee Taylor.
First ring at 3': left Papu from inside the area, para Navas on the ground. The real danger comes 1' later with Neymar who, incredibly, makes a one-on-one mistake with Sportiello kicking out. Super start in this first quarter final. The Goddess is in the game, PSG concedes something. On the 11th assist top of Gomez, who from a distance fishes Hateboer on the second post: dunked by the Dutchman's head, Navas is ok in answering (ditto a few moments later on Caldara, albeit offside). Until the 27th minute, the French push to corner the opponent, then the result changes: a ball to the limit for Zapata who, in a daring way, serves Pasalic, amazing with a left-footed shot to beat Navas on the second post. Goddess ahead. And he'll stay there until halftime, also because Neymar, in the 41st minute, didn't take advantage of Hateboer's mistake (Sportiello's back pass was too short) and sent him out. And by quite a lot. Thrill. We go into the locker room after 1' of recovery.
Tuchel (on crutches due to a sprained left ankle with a fractured fifth metatarsus) is not happy and sends Mbappé to warm up immediately, on the field at 60'. At the same time Gasperini puts Malinovskyi and Palomino in place of Papu and Djimsiti, who just before (57') makes a mistake on the fly: what a chance for the Goddess. In the central part of the shot Atalanta shortens, PSG struggles to create. And it's no coincidence that, at this stage, Sportiello is still watching: it will seem absurd, considering adversary and level of competition, but that's how it is. The changes continue: Gasp throws in the fray Muriel (out Pasalic), Tuchel risks more with Paredes and Draxler for Gueye and Herrera. We're at 74', when Sportiello puts his big foot on Mbappé's right. Navas doesn't make it because of an injury accused just before, on 79' space for Sergio Rico, the reserve goalkeeper. Eleven minutes to go, Mbappé made another mistake (very good Palomino in closing). Gasp called for Castagne and Da Riva, midfielder of the 2000 class at his debut in the Champions League. PSG tries, tries and tries. And at the end, in the 90th minute, he finds a draw with Marquinhos, who puts it in the fray from a few steps. And in the 93rd minute he even overtakes Choupo-Moting, who receives a "chocolate" from Mbappé. Unbelievable, unbelievable stuff. Although a round of applause for this Atalanta is certainly not to be missed.
POST-MATCH INTERVIEWS & QUOTES

• Thomas Tuchel Post-Match Press Conference.
• Eric Choupo-Moting Post-Match Press Conference.

1. Introduction

The 2019 season had mitigated success for the Vikings. They secured the #6 seed in the NFC before pulling a huge upset win in overtime in New Orleans. The offense completely stalled the following week in San Francisco, though.
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The franchise has not gone through a losing season in five years. Head coach Mike Zimmer has really done a good job.
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Can the team take a forward leap and make it further into the playoffs? The team has not made it to the Super Bowl since 1976.
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2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)
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Kirk Cousins has received more criticism than praise since signing a huge contract with the Vikings a couple of years ago. Yet, the team posted an 18-13-1 record and Cousins has thrown 56 TD passes versus 16 interceptions. His completion rate has been excellent over those two years: 69.7% (among the best of his career).
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The reprimand concerned more the lack of playoff wins than the level of play itself. He cleared a hurdle by leading his team to a big playoff upset in New Orleans last season, thanks to a 4-year TD pass to Kyle Rudolph in overtime.
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However, he followed it up with a horrific performance in San Francisco. Don’t be misled by his 21-of-29 passes completed during the game. Minnesota flirted with the postseason record for fewest first downs in a game; they only got 7 and totaled 147 yards of offense.
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Still, based on PFF grades, 2019 was Cousins’ best career season. He ranked as the #6 QB in the league with an 84.1 mark.
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Sean Mannion will once again back up Cousins. He’s clearly not the best #2 quarterback in the league. Cousins has been extremely durable throughout his career, and the Vikes hope it stays that way.
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2.2 Running Backs (RBs)
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In my 2019 NFC North preview, I mentioned how I believed Dalvin Cook was one of the most underrated players in the league. He had only rushed for 354 and 615 yards in his first two seasons, but he had passed my eye test. I knew that, barring injuries, he would breakout as one of the top backs in the league.
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He did enjoy a nice 2020 season with 1,135 rushing yards and 519 receiving yards, while racking up 13 touchdowns.
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Two things raise some concerns about him, though. First, his lengthy injury history. He seems to get nicked up often.
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Secondly, his play tailed off quite a bit towards the end of the season. During the first eight games of the season, he rushed 156 times for 823 yards, which was good for a lofty 5.3 average. However, over his final six meetings (including the playoffs) he carried the ball 84 times for 256 yards, a meager 3.0 average.
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After being selected in the 3rd round of the draft out of Boise State, Alexander Mattison showed promise in his first year as a pro. He had 100 rushing attempts for 462 yards, a nice 4.6 yards-per-carry average. It will be interesting to see if he can carry the load if Cook goes down.
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2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)
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The Vikings had one of the most talented WR duo in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. They caught 113 and 102 passes, respectively, during the 2018 season. Those figures regressed to 30 and 63 last year. Thielen only played 10 games, but he was still on pace for just 48 receptions.
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What was the problem? In 2018, Minnesota had the 6th-highest number of passing attempts. In 2019, that rank dropped to 30th !
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That being said, the team traded Diggs to Buffalo. He expressed frustration with Cousins and they didn’t seem to be on the same page.
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In order to compensate for that loss, GM Rick Spielman signed Tajae Sharpe, formerly of the Titans. He will fight for the #2 role opposite Thielen. The former fifth-rounder posted decent numbers in his first three years in the league. He used to be a starter, but his playing time got cut after Tennessee drafted A.J. Brown and signed Adam Humphries. Sharpe seems to be destined to be a #2 or #3 receiver in the NFL.
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The team also has high hopes for first-round rookie Justin Jefferson. He was very productive at LSU and he ranked second in 15+ yard receptions over the last two seasons (only Jerry Jeudy beat him). He wasn’t spectacular as an outside target, but he had a monster season playing in the slot last year. He’s great with contested catches and has a good shot to become an immediate starter.
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Bisi Johnson took advantage of Chad Beebe’s injury to grab the number three role last year. The 7th round rookie posted a 31-294-3 stat line, which was “okay”, but he seems like a long shot to become a true starter.
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The team finally pulled the plug on the failed Laquon Treadwell experiment. He’s been nothing short of a disappointment since being the #23 overall pick in the 2016 draft. He signed a contract with the Falcons in the offseason.
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2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)
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The Kyle Rudolph – Irv Smith combo is very solid.
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Both guys played all 16 games with Rudolph recording slightly better numbers. He hauled in 39 passes for 367 yards and 6 TDs, while Smith’s numbers were 36-311-2.
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Rudolph made some highlight reel catches, his most important one being the game-winning TD catch in overtime in New Orleans. Smith is expected to expand his role in the offense with one year of experience under his belt and Diggs off the team. He showed very nice potential despite the Vikings relying very often on the running game.
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2.5 Offensive Line (OL)
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This unit allowed the sixth-fewest sacks in the league, but that wasn’t necessarily a great accomplishment given the offense ran the ball so often.
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Overall, this is an average, or slightly above-average, offensive line. Here is a rundown of each starter’s PFF rankings:

• Garrett Bradbury, 30th out of 37 centers;
• Brian O’Neill, 33rd out of 81 tackles;
• Riley Reiff, 38th out of 81 tackles;
• Pat Elflein, 39th out of 81 guards;
• Josh Kline, 26th out of 81 guards.

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Bradbury and O’Neill were the youngest guys as first- and second-year players. It’s worth noting that O’Neill definitely improved the quality of his play from year one to year two.
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Riley Reiff was a candidate for release considering his big contract, which is not in sync with his on-field performance. He’s clearly not among the top left tackles in the league.
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After an atrocious 2018 season, Pat Elflein did better last year. He is in his mid-twenties and should remain an adequate starter (albeit, not a great one).
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Josh Kline was let go by the Vikings, possibly because of cap reasons and the fact he was now on the wrong side of 30. Still, this is a bit of a surprising move given the team’s lack of depth.
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2019 fourth-round pick Dru Samia or career journeyman Dakota Dozier will be fighting for Kline’s spot.
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The Vikings selected a late riser in the second round of this year’s draft: Ezra Cleveland. He played over 95% of the snaps in three years with Boise State. He is mobile and very athletic. He seems like Riley Reiff’s heir apparent (who seems likely to be released next offseason).
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2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE
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The starting lineup remains fairly intact with 9-of-11 starters returning.
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The QB, RB and TE positions should provide similar production in 2020.
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The WR position took a hit with the loss of Stefon Diggs, a very dangerous playmaker. He was among the best in contested catches. Acquiring a borderline starter like Tajae Sharpe won’t be enough to replace him. Let’s hope rookie Justin Jefferson can have an impact right away.
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On the offensive line, Bradbury and O’Neill may take a leap given their young age. However, Josh Kline leaving the team is hardly good news.
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Accordingly, I expect Minnesota’s offense to fall a little bit.
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Offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski left the team to take over as Cleveland’s head coach, but the system will remain the same under new OC Gary Kubiak. The latter oversaw the offense from the coaches box last year, so the transition shouldn’t be too difficult.
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Last year, the Vikings offense scored the eight-most points in the league, and I predict this year’s ranking to lie between the 10th and 16th spot.
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small downgrade
​

3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)
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The best interior defender for the Vikings was clearly Linval Joseph. Unfortunately, the cash-strapped Vikings had to release him.
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A few days later, Minnesota signed Michael Pierce. The former Raven performed at a very similar level as Joseph, but he is four years younger. The run-stuffing nose tackle’s acquisition has to be viewed as a bit of a positive for the Vikings defense.
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The other guys seeing time on the interior of the defensive line aren’t very good. Both Shamar Stephen and Jaleel Johnson finished way below-average according to the PFF grading system.
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3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)
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The Vikings had one of the most fearsome DE duo with Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen. They racked up 14.5 and 8 sacks, respectively.
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Casual fans probably know who Danielle Hunter is. But they don’t realize how good he is; he doesn’t get enough credit, possibly due to playing in a smaller market.
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If you look at the numbers, he’s been a beast. Did you know he became the youngest player in NFL history to reach the 50-sack mark? He picked up 14.5 sacks in each of the past two years, and he has averaged 10.9 over his five-year career. The former LSU player was a steal in the 3rd round of the 2015 draft!
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Everson Griffen is getting older at 32 years old. At the time of writing, he has yet to sign with a team. He is very likely to find a suitor, but all signs point towards him leaving Minnesota. That will leave a void for sure.
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Griffen has averaged 8.8 sacks during the last eight seasons. He has spent his entire 10-year career with the Vikings and has missed very few games. He’s a true warrior.
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So, who will take Griffen’s spot? Stephen Weatherly was a key reserve for the team last year, but he left for Carolina. Is Ifeadi Odenigbo ready to pick up the slack? He came out of nowhere to record seven sacks last year!
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After being chosen in the 7th round of the 2017 draft, Odenigbo barely played any snaps in his first two seasons. I seriously doubt he can be the long-term answer and I believe last year’s seven sacks were an outlier.
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3.3 Linebackers (LBs)
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Eric Kendricks had one of the most improbable seasons last year. His PFF marks had varied between 59 and 69 since entering the league five years ago. Then, he earned a jaw-dropping 90.1 grade in 2019, which put him as the second-best linebacker in the entire league. He didn’t do much as a pass rusher, but he was great defending the run and covering people.
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Anthony Barr had a subpar year and finished as a below-average LB according to ProFootballFocus. He’s been a steady producer, but his grades have been all over the place during his six-year career. He received his second-lowest mark in 2019.
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Eric Wilson has been a reserve player since joining the league in 2017. He’ll likely have a similar role in the upcoming season. He did show adequate skills last year.
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3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)
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Wow, a lot of shuffling has taken place with Minnesota’s secondary during the offseason.
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Both 2019 starters, Trae Waynes and Xavier Rhodes, are gone to other teams. And their primary slot corner, Mackensie Alexander, also signed with another squad. Ouch.
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Waynes never played at the level of a #11 overall pick, but he yielded steady play during his five-year stint with the Vikings. His PFF grades have been very consistent year-over-year, and he repeatedly finished slightly above-average among all CBs. He’s the guy the team will miss the most.
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Let’s face the reality: Xavier Rhodes was one of the worst corners in the league last year. His play took a big hit in 2018, and things got even worse in 2019. He really needed a chance of scenery; perhaps joining the Colts will rejuvenate his career.
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As for Mackensie Alexander, I feel like the team should have tried harder to keep him. His first two seasons were difficult after getting drafted in the 2nd round out of Clemson, but his last couple of years were much more promising. He could have rendered some valuable services to a team that had just lost its two starters.
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The door is now wide open for 2018 first-rounder Mike Hughes. The jury is still out on whether he can assume a starting role in the NFL, but I guess we’ll find out very soon.
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The Vikings decided to address the glaring hole at the position by selecting Jeff Gladney with the 31st overall pick in this year’s draft. Gladney is a sound tackler and a good blitzer too.
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He was a four-year starter out of TCU, where he was one of just two players with at least 15 passes defended in each of the past two years. However, he has a lengthy injury history.
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3.5 Safeties (S)
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Harrison Smith is a perennial All-Pro safety. He’s been racking up tackles and interceptions throughout his eight-year tenure in the NFL. Averaging close to 3 picks per season over such a long span is impressive.
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Talk about defying the odds. Anthony Harris went undrafted five years ago. Fast-forward to today, and he’s received 89.0 and 91.1 grades from PFF the last two seasons. He finished as the top safety in the NFL out of 87 qualifiers.
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In other words, the Vikings may have the best safety duo in the NFL. The only bad news is they lost depth when both Andrew Sendejo and Jayron Kearse left via free agency.
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2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE
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Replacing Linval Joseph with Michael Pierce is a small gain for this Vikings defense, in my opinion. That’s about it for the good news for this unit.
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Stud pass rusher Everson Griffen seems destined to leave the team, and one of their main backups, Stephen Weatherly signed with the Panthers.
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At linebacker, I don’t mean to be a party pooper, but Kendricks is very unlikely to match his 2019 performance. He had been an average LB for four years; I doubt the switch suddenly went on and that he will keep being a top 5 linebacker in the NFL.
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Last year’s top three CBs are gone, as well as two backups at the safety position. As of now, the team hasn’t signed any free agent to replace them. This is not a surprise, considering the bad cap situation the team is in. They drafted a few guys, including Jeff Gladney late in the first round, but their impact remains to be seen.
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Many new faces on defense, plus a drop in talent invariably equals a big downgrade. The team allowed the fifth-fewest points in the league last year; they’ll be lucky if they finish above-average in 2020.
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Big downgrade
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4. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Minnesota Vikings are expected to win 8.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?
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I'll answer this question via two different methods.
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4.1 Professor MJ's Prediction
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I won't go into the mathematical details, but here is a summary of my own personal pick (based on my analysis above and my estimated spreads for the Vikings' 16 games):
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OVER 8.5 WINS

• Estimated Probability: 72%
• Best Odds: -121 (DraftKings)
• ROI: +31.5%

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UNDER 8.5 WINS

• Estimated Probability: 28%
• Best Odds: +139 (Pinnacle)
• ROI: -33.1%

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Tip: Bet OVER 8.5 wins
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4.2 Based on BetOnline's Point Spreads
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Here is the methodology I used here:

• Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
• Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
• Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
• Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
• Count the proportion of seasons where the Vikings won more or less than 8.5 games.

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Here are the results:
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OVER 8.5 WINS

• Estimated Probability: 63.1%
• Best Odds: -121 (DraftKings)
• ROI: +15.2%

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UNDER 8.5 WINS

• Estimated Probability: 36.9%
• Best Odds: +139 (Pinnacle)
• ROI: -11.8%

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Tip: Bet OVER 8.5 wins
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Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Vikings’ 16 regular season games:

• HOME: -6 vs ATL, -9 vs CAR, -4 vs CHI, -2.5 vs DAL, -7 vs DET, -3 vs GB, -11.5 vs JAX, -3.5 vs TEN.
• ROAD: 0 @ CHI, -2 @ DET, +3 @ GB, 0 @ HOU, +2 @ IND, +5.5 @ NO, +3 @ SEA, +3 @ TB.

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Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.
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Tomorrow I'll preview the Dallas Cowboys!
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Professor MJ

1. Introduction

Matt LaFleur’s first season as Green Bay’s head coach has to be considered a success. He led the team to a 13-3 record, which secured the NFC North title.
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The Packers held off the Seahawks to a 28-23 home win in the first round of the playoffs, but were ousted by the Niners in a brutal 37-20 thumping (a game in which the Packers dugged themselves into an early 27-0 hole).
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2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)
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Aaron Rodgers will be entering his 16th NFL season. He had another excellent year with a 26-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio and over 4,000 passing yards. He finished as the 7th-best QB in the league according to PFF ratings.
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At 36 years old, he is likely to have a few good years left. After all, Drew Brees and Tom Brady posted nice statistics in their late thirties.
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Rodgers has been very durable throughout his career, but he’s not invincible either. Tim Boyle was the backup plan last year, and the team needed to upgrade the position while starting to think about the post-Rodgers era.
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Still, drafting Jordan Love was the most questionable and talked-about pick in this year’s draft. People expected the Packers to go with a veteran backup QB. Rodgers has mentioned several times he wants to play in his forties; he can still offer a good five years of solid play in the frozen tundra.
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Love has possesses great size, throws with velocity and he’s very mobile. The main knock on him is the decision-making and inconsistency.
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As a sophomore, he threw 32 TD passes versus 6 interceptions. He regressed a lot last year by posting a mediocre 20:17 TD:INT mark. Granted, his surrounding cast was very weak and he had to go through a coaching change.
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Love can throw from many different arm angles; he reminds people of Patrick Mahomes in this regard. He can throw a fastball or a soft touch pass.
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Quick note: he almost quit football when he was 14 years old after his dad committed suicide. However, he knew his dad would want him to keep playing, so he did just that.
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2.2 Running Backs (RBs)
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Aaron Jones is a top running back in this league. Along with Jamaal Williams, they form a lethal duo.
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Including the playoffs, Jones ended up scoring 23 touchdowns in 18 games. His 19 regular season scores were the second most in Packers history. His numbers have increased in each of his first three years as a pro. He is also excellent as a pass catcher.
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Despite playing in the shadow of Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams still finished as the 17th-best RB based on PFF rankings. He does not seem like a lead back, but he’s a perfect change-of-pace guy. Much like Jones, he can do some damage as a receiver as well.
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Williams has been a steady performer thus far in his career. He has rushed for 450-550 yards in each of his three seasons, while catching a minimum of 25 balls. He has 15 total TDs over this three-year span.
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If you thought GM Brian Gutekunst made a strange move by drafting QB Jordan Love in the first round, he doubled down with another head scratcher in the 2nd round when he took A.J. Dillon.
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Message to Mr. Gutekunst: Aaron Rodgers needed pass catchers, not a third running back! I really don’t get this pick either. I’m not saying Dillon won’t be good in the NFL; only time will tell. However, it clearly wasn’t a position of need for the Packers.
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Dillon is a power back who rarely breaks off huge runs. He racked up big numbers in three seasons in Boston College. He’s unlikely to become a three-down starter, especially since he’s not a good pass catcher. He will likely be used sporadically as a rookie.
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2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)
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Davante Adams is one of the best at his position. He had a streak of three straight seasons with at least 10 TD receptions snapped last year, but he still caught 83 passes for 997 yards in 12 games (he missed four games because of a toe injury).
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Outside of Adams, all pass catchers appeared lost on the field. None of them developed a good chemistry with Rodgers.
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Marquez Valdes-Scantling was a huge disappointment last year. He showed promise as a rookie with over 500 receiving yards. Here’s a jaw-dropping statistic: after Week #7, MVS did not get more than 19 receiving yards in any meeting. That’s awful.
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One of the guys benefiting from Valdes-Scantling’s poor play was Jake Kumerow. He got more playing time than expected, but still only caught 12 passes. He is closing in on 30 years of age and is limited as an athlete, so he’s not a long-term answer for sure.
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Allen Lazard was also thrown into action far more than expected. He finished second in terms of receiving yards for Green Bay, but let’s face the reality: the undrafted guy remains more of a #3 or #4 WR for any team.
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Geronimo Allison was another bust last year. His top performance over the last 12 games (including the playoffs) was a meager 33 receiving yards. He left for another NFC North team, the Detroit Lions.
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In other words, the #2 role is wide open. The team hopes newly acquired Devin Funchess can step into that role. The former second rounder had his best season in 2017 with the Panthers with a 63-840-8 stat line. He signed with the Colts last year, but played just one game before breaking a collarbone. He will be 26 years old this season and provides an interesting prospect for the Packers.
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2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)
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We’re not done talking about 2019 busts. Jimmy Graham was one of them. He clearly looks washed. He received the lowest grades of his 10-year career, and deservedly so. The Packers released him and he signed a few days later with the Bears (a horrible mind-boggling two-year, $16 million contract).
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Marcedes Lewis received surprisingly good marks from PFF. If you look into the numbers, the good grade occurred mainly because of efficient run and pass blocking. He’s not much of a pass catcher and he will be 36 years old when the season begins.
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Robert Tonyan will also be in the mix, but the guy that has the best chance to break out as a receiver in 2020 only caught three passes last year (all in the playoffs): Jace Sternberger. Taken in the third round of the 2019 draft, Sternberger was a threat at Texas A&M in college. He missed most of the regular season because of injuries, but the door is wide open with Graham’s departure.
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We might also see third-round rookie Josiah Deguara. He has a great motor and plays extremely hard. He’s undersized as a tight end, though.
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2.5 Offensive Line (OL)
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The Packers had a pretty solid offensive line in 2019. All five starters managed to play at least 84% of the offensive snaps. And they all finished above-average according to PFF ratings!
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The bad news, however, is the Bryan Bulaga left for the Chargers. Despite turning over 30 years old, he still played at a high level.
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The Packers decided to replace him by signing Rick Wagner, formerly of the Lions. Wagner’s PFF grades from 2016 to 2018 were as follows: 74.0, 75.2 and 71.4. Last year, his play deteriorated a lot and he was tagged with a 59.0 grade. He finished as the #61 tackle among 81 guys.
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I like the fact that the team is returning four out of five guys, but replacing Bulaga with Wagner has to be viewed as a downgrade.
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2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE
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The Packers offense finished in the middle of the pack in points scored per game. Barring major injuries, I expect about the same production in 2020.
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The QB and RB situations remain the same.
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Adding Funchess is not a huge move, but it won’t hurt. The team clearly needs someone to step up opposite of Davante Adams. At tight end, losing Jimmy Graham means close to nothing since he was so ineffective. Sternberger might bring a nice contribution, but we can hardly expect him to be a game-breaker.
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Finally, the OL will take a dip with the loss of Bulaga. I don’t believe Rick Wagner can do better than him.
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All in all, I view the additions/departures as a slight negative for Green Bay, but having so many starters returning to the lineup for a second straight season is always a good thing in the NFL. For these reasons, I expect a similar output as 2019 from this unit.
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Stable
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3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)
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Kenny Clark had a fantastic season! He is one of the best interior rushers in the NFL. He recorded six sacks for the second straight year, and PFF ranked him as the 13th-best interior linemen out of 114 qualifiers.
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The same nice comments cannot be made about Dean Lowry. He had the worst season of his four-year career as a pro. He did not post a single sack and wasn’t great against the run either.
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Reserve Tyler Lancaster is only there to provide some depth. He isn’t particularly good in any aspect of the game.
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The team did not make any move regarding this position during the offseason.
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3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)
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During the last offseason, the Packers acquired two Smiths: Za’Darius and Preston. They burst onto the scene and got 13.5 and 12 sacks, respectively.
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Obviously, both received high marks for their pass rushing abilities, but Preston finished as an average linebacker overall because of mediocre run defense and poor coverage.
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Kyler Fackrell was a huge disappointment in 2019. After racking up 10.5 sacks in 2018, he only got one in 2019! He signed a one-year deal with the Giants.
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First-round pick Rashan Gary wasn’t necessarily impressive during his rookie season. He played 23% of the snaps, while obtaining two sacks but very pedestrian marks from PFF (an overall 55.8 grade, which is near the bottom among edge defenders).
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3.3 Linebackers (LBs)
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Green Bay lost its leader in tackles from the past three years, Blake Martinez. After starting 61 of the last 64 Packers games, Martinez decided to join the New York Giants. He had the second-most tackles in the league last year, but don’t be misled by that number. Martinez still finished slight below-average (52nd out of 89 LBs) because of poor play against the run.
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The Packers also lost some depth at the position when B.J. Goodson left for Cleveland.
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Green Bay picked up a linebacker from the Browns roster: Christian Kirksey. He was picked in the 3rd round of the 2014 before being involved in all 16 games from his first four seasons in the NFL. However, he has been plagued with injuries over the most recent two years; he played 7 games in 2018 and only 2 games in 2019.
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He is also capable of racking up tackles, as shown by his 2016 and 2017 seasons where he obtained 146 and 138. His PFF grades during his first four seasons varied between 61.9 and 69.3. Just to give you a rough idea, a 65.0 rating would have been good for 29th place out of 89 LBs.
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3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)
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Jaire Alexander has done the job as the #1 corner. He has obtained 72.4 and 71.2 marks from PFF during his first two seasons, which is well-above average. He’s so-so defending the run, but his coverage skills are very good.
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The number two corner, Kevin King had five interceptions last year after getting just one over his first two years as a pro. He did show some improvement after two rocky years. He finished 2019 as a middle-of-the-pack corner.
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Tramon Williams played 74% of the snaps and had a surprisingly good season despite his age. He will be 37 when the 2020 season begins. He is currently a free agent and it remains to be seen if the Packers bring him back or not.
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In summary, Alexander and King are both pretty young and could still be improving, but Tramon Williams provided quality play and it’s uncertain if someone else can pick up the slack.
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3.5 Safeties (S)
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Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage were the top two guys here.
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Along with Za’Darius and Preston Smith, the Adrian Amos was another excellent signing by the Packers during the 2019 offseason. Amos had been a reliable guy in Chicago for four seasons, and he continued to excel in the frozen tundra.
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After being selected as the #21 overall pick in the 2019 draft, Darnell Savage did show some flashes as a rookie last year. He finished as the #47 safety among 87 qualifiers, which is very satisfying for a rookie. He earned nice marks in coverage (77.4), but horrible ones against the run (37.7).
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Will Redmond will be back as the number three safety. He’s not starter material for sure.
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2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE
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Most of the starters are returning in 2020. That’s the good news.
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The team lost their leader in tackles, Blake Martinez, as well as pass rusher Kyler Fackrell and CB Tramon Williams.
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The only acquisition worth of note is Christian Kirksey. Him not having played very much during the last two seasons brings some question marks.
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The Packers defense struggled against the run last year, and there’s no reason to believe that will change in 2020. Green Bay still finished 9th in points allowed, which was a very acceptable result.
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Unfortunately, a decrease in effectiveness is expected and I predict this unit will end 2020 as a middle-of-pack defense (12th – 19th in points allowed).
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small downgrade
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4. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Green Bay Packers are expected to win 9 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?
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Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:

• Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
• Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
• Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
• Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
• Count the proportion of seasons where the Packers won more or less than 9 games.

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Here are the results (excluding the simulated years where the Pack won exactly 9 games, since in those cases your bet would have tied):
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	Estimated Probability	Sportsbook	Odds	ROI
OVER 9 WINS	51.4%	bwin	+115	+10.5%
UNDER 9 WINS	48.6%	Heritage Sports	+100	-2.8%

Tip: Bet OVER 9 wins
Return On Investment (ROI): +10.5%
Rank: 25th-highest ROI out of 32 teams
Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -106
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Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Packers’ 16 regular season games:
HOME: -6 vs ATL, -10 vs CAR, -4.5 vs CHI, -6.5 vs DET, -11.5 vs JAX, -3 vs MIN, -2.5 vs PHI, -3.5 vs TEN.
ROAD: 0 @ CHI, -2 @ DET, 0 @ HOU, +2.5 @ IND, +3 @ MIN, +5.5 @ NO, +6.5 @ SF, +2.5 @ TB.
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Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.
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TOMORROW: I'll talk about the team whose ROI is the 24th-highest in the league, the Pittsburgh Steelers!
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Did you like this write-up? If so, comment below! I'd like to know YOUR opinion on what to expect from the Packers' 2020 season!
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Professor MJ

Author’s Note: I just wrote 3500 words of gibberish. I’m washed boys. I’ll bold some of the highlights; but don’t punish yourself too much or expect a ton out of it. Reads more like a recap into decision making without a ton of time taken to walk through the individual pieces of that process.
TLDR;

• I'll answer specific questions in the comments
• First 3 rounds of 3 completed rookie drafts
• Top 3 RBs undeniable
• CeeDee makes 4
• Burrow and Tua are indecipherable by my accounts
• Don’t pin yourself down when drafting in the first 30 picks, don’t waste time on players that you are going to make every excuse to avoid drafting. Nut up and call the ball
• CD #6 overall on Dallas’ board, Jones intent on him wearing #88, Amari on team friendly deal after 2021 season, Gallup’s contract is up after 2021 (early guess is Amari gone, Lamb/Gallup)
• Leaned upside on Shenault after months of poo-pooing him. Great value right now in the early second
• Trautman, 4 picks traded for him, top 40 player on the Saints boards
• Measure your expectations—even through the excitement of a perfect draft realize that if you’re lucky you might have drafted a, one, uno, stud OR long-term fantasy player

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2020 Rookie Process to Date:

• Notes on the 2020 Class, August ’19
• 2020 Rankings #1, January ’20
• 2020 Rankings #2, March ’20

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Small side note, I have stepped down as Moderator. When I get passionate about something—well, I tend to go overboard...take a brief look at my post history. Either way summer is fast approaching, and it is just a good time to reprioritize things in life.
Big note. This is not a traditional ranking of players. If that is your expectation, this will not be your cup of tea. This is my cathartic debrief and recap from my rookie draft season; I’ll throw out a few trains of thoughts on a few players, hopefully some interesting nuggets that’ll help people, but I understand if most are displeased.
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Foreword

Another year in the books of discussing and allowing data & historical precedence to carry us through the months. Mentally I am already onto 2021 and will probably put out a “Notes on” soon. But for now, let us work through my final rankings of the 2020 class. Things obviously change, more data is pouring out of teams, the off-season will be unique due to COVID-19 and more information will come as our takes metastasize to our brain.
This post is going to bring most people far less utility. Just the way I’ve written it, for that I am sorry. But I wanted to dig at my mindset while I was drafting less every potential hypothetical that we twist ourselves into knots over with these exercises.
In order to deliver my usual posts it requires more nuance than I am willing to produce currently. Some may think, “why bother?” Well, my rookie drafts are done for the season and I thought it would be nice to have a conversation, and hopefully pull people into a broader conversation. Please bear with me, while I used data to assign tiers, much of the decisions making done within the tiers was done on feelings that emerged from digesting that data.
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Quarterback Rankings

I have Burrow and Tua far closer than most people, they are tiered for me. Especially when there is a major discrepancy in draft value required to secure them, I will prioritize taking Tua.
There is a good argument for Justin Herbert in the conversation, but I have never been high on his tools, and collegiate production. Love enters the conversation as the true definition of a “dynasty investment.”
I would be willing to roster a few other guys; Hurts, Fromm, Eason, Gordon but I would not consider them any sooner than the third or fourth round of rookie drafts.

1. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals [-]
2. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins [-]
3. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers [-]
4. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers [-]

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Running Back Rankings

Look at the last 20 years of bell-cow running backs with successful rushing QBs and almost all of them average 100+ scrimmage yards/game. Dobbins will be ranked higher than Taylor by the consensus sooner rather than later.
Taylor is still a safe talent on a very good running team with limited competition (sorry Mack & Hines); but I’m not certain how anyone right now can ignore CEH or Dobbins. Below I’ll rank them in the order that’ll piss off the most people, but I would take the guy you can get for the best value in your draft. Today that might be Dobbins, tomorrow it might be Taylor.
If you’re picking at 1, it’s a tough choice. Kansas City and Baltimore are well run programs. CEH collegiate profile was incomplete, only one year of stud production, but does that mean anything in Kansas City? Dobbins was special at Ohio State, but does that lack of preparation in year 2 seep back in now that he’s in the NFL? Is Taylor more concerned with owning Toppers’ Pizza locations in Madison WI than playing football? We all find our reasons to take our guys.
Cam Akers and D’Andre Swift will share a tier, again take the guy you believe in or the guy you can get for the best value.
Everyone else ranked is in a grab bag tier, grab them where-ever is most prudent, I’ve assigned rough values based on where I’ve seen them go and where I start considering taking them. Anyone not listed is considered a round 3/round 4 guy that I’m not concerning myself with. I may love the Anthony McFarland fit/pick but I am not going to waste more words on it.
Rank change [-] speaks to the change of tiering in this case, not a change in position rank.

1. JK Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens [+1]
2. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts [-]
3. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs [+1]
4. Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams [+1]
5. D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions [-]
6. AJ Dillon. Green Bay Packers [mid to late Round 2 of your rookie draft]
7. Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Tampa Bay Buccaneers [mid to late Round 2]
8. Antonio Gibson, Washington Redskins [Round 2/3 turn]
9. Joshua Kelley, Los Angeles Chargers [Round 3]

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Popcorn time!

Wide Receiver Rankings

1. CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys [-]
2. Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings [-]
3. Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles [+2]
4. Laviska Shenault, Jacksonville Jaguars [+6]
5. Bryan Edwards, Las Vegas Raiders [-2]
6. Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts [+1]
7. Denzel Mims, New York Jets [-1]
8. Devin Duvernay, Baltimore Ravens [UR]
9. Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams [UR]

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Am I missing a few guys? Absolutely I am. These are the guys, for the most part that I am targeting. In theory, Jerry Jeudy is my 2nd ranked wide receiver; Henry Ruggs is my 5th ranked receiver. When it comes down to molding a draft board; where I’m seeing Jeudy go I NEED one of my top 3 RBs; hell I’ll move up 1 or 2 spots to make sure it happens. Beyond that I am in the strong lean Akers > Jeudy camp.
To further highlight this, I do like Jeudy. But in this moment..I want, CEH-Dobbins-Taylor-Akers, Burrow-Tua, and CeeDee over him. That means the earliest I am drafting Jeudy is 8 and the board has to fall that way. I'd have to be the Dallas Cowboys to have a pick in that range and also have the board fall that way. I'm just not getting Jeudy.
I want Akers-Swift-Tua-Reagor-Jefferson where Ruggs commonly comes off the board. You should absolutely be considering Aiyuk when he slips into the second, or Claypool anywhere from the mid second on. You’ll figure that out—you’ll have your preferences. I have mine.

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So here is the crux of all of this, three, real, live drafts and the results for them.
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THEORY TO REALITY (LIVE DRAFT RESULTS)

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Teams are color-coated (no color alignment between drafts, bright red in Draft A is not the guy that is bright red in Draft C); my selections, the player’s name is highlighted in orange. Two of the drafts went to 4 rounds, a third to 6; at the time of this screen capture Draft C had just gotten through the third round.
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Draft A

A freshly booted devy superflex league, TE premium, PP1D, draconian QB scoring (+6 touchdowns, -4 turnovers), QB/SF/1RB/1W1TE/5FLEX, 10 teams. Going into it the startup, I went stud-only early and then poured capital into Devy and Rookie picks. My baseline roster of note was Wentz-Wilson-Saquon-Nuk. Devy picks yielded Pickens, Garrett Wilson, Najee Harris.
At 1.05, the pick was always CeeDee Lamb. My flair is Lamb Brigade, I’ve been on Lamb since before the season. The Cowboys’ having Lamb as their 6th rated player, and Jerry requesting that he wears Irvin and Dez’s #88 only solidifies it for me. This is dynasty. Cooper is on a team friendly deal after the 2021 season, Gallup is due for resigning after 2021, I trust Lamb to hit his markers (500+ yards year 1, better year 2). My expectation is a Marvin Harrison-Reggie Wayne or Andre Johnson-DeAndre Hopkins type come up. I’d be lying if I said I didn’t give JK Dobbins a thought—but it was CeeDee ForMe. Let’s be clear, Dobbins is the safer play here. I just have a favorite.
Reading through this I want to further clarify this pick. It was a numbers game for me. I have Lamb >> Jeudy whereas I have Dobbins only > Akers. By counting the picks I liked my chances of getting Akers at 8. Didn't work out that way.
At 1.08, I was originally hoping I might get my first share of Akers. That wasn’t to be and this particularly decision point wasn’t difficult either. I counted out the players I liked, Jefferson, Swift, Reagor, Tua; and asked myself who was going to be there at 2.01. Least likely to be there was Tua because of superflex and positional scarcity. There are absolutely some worlds I take one of the other 3; but not this one.
At 2.01, best of the rest. Reagor was the easy choice for me. Let’s be clear here I am a huge fan of Reagor, had him as my WR2 coming into the 2019 season. Do not get caught expecting him to be a year 1 dynamo. Nothing would surprise me, in the same vein Ertz/Goedert will get there 200 targets and I suspect Alshon and DeSean will be in the gameplan to some degree (over under around 200 targets if healthy). Cap restraints make me reluctant to believe either player gets shipped before the season. There is room to consider Ruggs here instead of Reagor.
At 2.03, this was my first Laviska share. It was perplexing to be honest. If you’ve read any of my work to this point—I think you’re surprised I have two shares of Laviska. Part of it was the post-draft interviews, Jacksonville talking about ‘Viska getting a good medical eval and that they believe his surgeries with good rehabilitation habits have corrected all of his nagging issues; probably a pipedream. There is an air of upside to this guy that I can’t shrug off, he has sink in his routes that are second to none in this class. When I looked around at Mims, Aiyuk, Love, Pittman, Hamler, Higgins, I simply do not feel the same about their profiles. Let’s highlight that, “I did not feel the same.” Toss in Fournette on his way out, myself being a bit of a Jay Gruden-stan, and Jacksonville and Viska hooking up that night to discuss their plans for him. I can’t shake the upside. This is a high-risk pick—but I LOVE this value in the early to mid-second. Even if he is a stud, I promise you I will joke until the end of the time that I expect him to be on my IR at any moment.
At 2.10, my boy, Bryan Edwards. It’s been a long time. Two years of work and we finally made it. My first share of Bryan Edwards. I am led to believe that he was going to put up a great combine at 6-3, 215; he immediately slots in as their iso-X; and Mayock sang so many praises I had to catch my breath. This draft has been all heart for me and the statistical profiles of every one of these guys have my back. I was uneasy with letting Dillon go here. I frantically tried to trade up for him before and after the Edwards pick. Just such a good value for Dillon. I later found out that the 3.02 was insta-drafting either Edwards or Dillon so I was screwed either way and in my heart of hearts I’m glad I have Edwards.
The one problem with this draft, no immediate starters to fill into those FLEX spots for this draft. I was so busy chasing my guys that I am criminally thin at RB on this roster (although I would have gone Akers at 8 to remedy this in the moment—probably not the best choice in hindsight); thankfully I had a good late draft, while people were scooping up third and fourth round rookie picks I was grab DeSean Jackson’s, Marvin Jones types that by week 4 or 5 of the coming season I should be more comfortable with my lineup.

Draft B

A newly acquired league that might be a little softcore for my tastes. I constantly have to remind myself that it’s only 4PT passing TD, 1QB and fairly small starting lineups for 12 teams (QB/2RB/2W1TE/2FLEX). The roster is pretty shallow for my tastes, but I do like the starting lineup, the most notable assets include Wentz-Elliott-Adams-Odell-Andrews.
At 2.06, the board was already light. There were guys there we can convince ourselves of, but I was pretty much down to Edwards-Dillon-Tua-Burrow. The ground swell in the league suggested that a QB was likely going to be there at 2.12, even if I was just stashing Love for the next half decade; who cares it’s 2.12. Knowing that most of the league was aware of my online presence, I decided to go Edwards. Looking back at the move, I probably should have gone with the upside presented in AJ Dillon’s profile—but you’re trying to make the best out of a crap sandwich at this point in the draft, regardless of what anyone is trying to pump you full of.
At 2.08, I lucked out and Dillon was there, easy insta-draft.
At 2.12, I probably played myself. It’s 1QB, I don’t expect to have to start Tua year one, I have a general affinity for him—and let’s be honest; do you really want to bet significant money on who will have a better career? As you can tell—at this point I went full “screw it.” Will I come to regret the pick? Probably. Will it undermine my team in this league—in 1QB, 4pt passing TD, nah.
At 3.10, I traded for this pick. Honestly, I had 3 concurrent rookie drafts running and I was patently sick of them. Waay too many people were running most of their 8 hour clocks and I was tired of waiting. I traded 2, 2020 4ths (became Quez Watkins and James Proche) and a 2021 4th to get up to 3.10 and end my draft. What if I told you the Saints traded not 1, not 2, but 4 picks to move up to get Trautman, and then after that came out and said that he was a top 40 rated player on their board. What if then, after that I told you their only tight end of note is 33 years old. Hi, one Adam Trautman please.

Draft C

This is the coup de grace. This is my Mona Lisa, so much went right, I don’t even know how to react. This league is superflex, ppr, 1QB/1SF/2RB/3W1TE/2FLEX/1DST, 12 teams, 6pt passing touchdowns.
Tua went 1.01 because the 1.01-owner’s team (newly adopted orphan) is legitimately bad, full rebuild, he’s aiming Lawrence next year. He has Tua-Burrow evenly ranked, his hope is that Tua gets redshirted this year and does his team no good.
The owner that selected both CEH and Jonathan Taylor considered Burrow over Taylor but is pretty solid at QB. The 2/3 owner tried literally everything to get 4/5 to acquire CeeDee. At one point he was offering Evans straight up. No dice. He had quite the run of attempts to trade, and they were clear overpays by most people’s standards, no one wanted to budge; he did it all throughout the first and second rounds.
We all assumed Burrow at 4, it’s the only reason an overpay won’t work, right? BOOM, Jeudy. At this point I don’t know what to do with my hands. The #5 owner was planning Dobbins 100% of the way and never expected Burrow to be right there. He’s trying everything to get out of the #5 pick and turn it into gold. The 2/3 owner is throwing everything and the kitchen sink at him—not good enough. I’m sweating bullets for my Lamb share..and finally the #5 relents and takes Burrow.
Examples like this, is why I tell people not to just draft a guy and assume they'll get a kings-ransom elsewhere. Sure 1-3 teams in that superflex league might be interested, but in the moment, at likely his cheapest price no one expressed interest in Burrow. Don't expect that to change suddenly over night. To further that example, If Ruggs some how falls to you at 2.06 and you don't like him, don't suddenly expect that'll you'll be able to turn him for a profit later--the league, or at least the people on the board and active on that day are telling you they really aren't that interested.
At 1.06, I take Lamb. The Draft A and C were running pretty close to one another so when I was on the clock (many shared owners between A & C) in A, I was waiting for my pick in C so that I could ensure I didn’t get sniped for Lamb. Reasons above described why I’m all in on Lamb—past post history just furthers it. Why listen to me when you can listen to the mountains of pundits.
At 1.07, this was the beauty. This was the death blow, I can’t believe I got Dobbins here. Just a stupid bit of luck that the 1.01 owner is getting cute (who knows it may work), the 1.04 owner was glued to Jeudy, and the 1.05 owner felt he couldn’t pass on Burrow.
I attempt to make plays for Reagor and Akers as they fell, no dice anywhere.
At 2.04, at this point I had my first share of Viska in Draft A, this being Draft C; I just followed through on my convictions. I did consider Aiyuk but felt no loyalty to that pick. Taking perceived upside.
At 2.08, again I went heart. In this draft I was quite afraid there were 2 people that would snipe me on Edwards just to mess with me. We are a pretty good bunch and atleast 1 of them is fully aware of my interest in Edwards, the other 1 should have had an inkling after we facetimed through day 1 and day 2. Both picked between 2.04 and 3.04 so I wasn’t going to take the risk. Part of me wishes I would have taken Dillon and risked Edwards for 3.04, but it is what it is.
I did put out offers to try to get Dillon, in hindsight I could have gotten something done at 2.10 if I was a little more forthcoming and persistent, so that kind of sucks.
At 3.04, the original plan was Gibson with the way the board was falling. Didn’t happen that way. I had already taken Trautman in Draft A and was well aware of the boons assigned to his profile, 3.04 was my last pick of note in this draft so while closing my eyes to the availability of Moss-Kelley-Hamler; I see the upside and might regret it again—fatigue of the process and a need in that league for TE drove me back to Trautman.
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RECAP

How did I come to my decisions? A lot of it was based on profile and statistical modeling. Even the best prospects by any modeled outcome have a 50-50 chance of succeeding. Most of your top prospects in any given year it’s about 20%. Try to make good value decisions, try to value more complete profiles, consider all of the intel out there on prospects but at the end of the day; who am I? Who am I to say CeeDee is going to succeed and do it big? I’m not, and I won’t; I just believe based on every piece of data out there that I like my odds of the coin flipping what I call. Same goes with Dobbins, Taylor, Clyde Edwards-Helaire. They just scream “I have a role and I’m going to give you fantasy points.”
We aren’t honest enough with ourselves when we draft these guys. I can speak glowingly of each and everyone one of my guys—hell I can speak negatively about the guys I drafted (Hi Laviska) but none of that matters, what matters is what the board looks like when it is your turn to draft, what it will look like after you draft, and whether any of it matters.
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Tips to Help You with Your Upcoming Draft

1. Go watch post-draft coach/GM interviews. They are fluff, they’ll say things that you’ll wrongly assign value to; there is a good argument that I’ve done that above. But some of them are going to tease to you just how highly they valued a guy (Diontae Johnson, round 1, Bruce Arians miffed that the Steelers sniped him), like Trautman, like Lamb. Will it eventually make these guys more successful? Nah, but it may just tell us how much rope a prospect has..
2. Statistical models aren’t the end all be all—but dismissing them entirely is foolhardy at best, they are built to give you better odds. Problem is people like to make all their decisions on those odds. Does it matter if a model assigns a 22% probability to player A and a 19% probability of success to player B? Generally no, models based on football data do not have that level of viability. As a rule of thumb say a range of predicted success is 1% to 50%. I would consider the margins probably about 10 percentage points, so generally buckets guys between 40-50, 30-40, etc etc. But if one guy is 41% and another guy is 39% I'd say the decision point is muddled and unclear, but if one guys is 41% and the other guy is 29%, then I'd consider it; even then it's roughly 2:5 and 1:3 odds, are they really all that discernible in practice?
3. Understand a players role, watch for yourself, and listen to others. I’d say my evaluation process is about 30% defining for myself, 20% listening to others, 30% statistical models, and 10% bias developed from learning about the player as a person, 10% hype baby.
4. Nothing is the end all be all. I think I’ve highlighted that at every turn. We are going to pin ourselves to X means they’ll be successful. It could be a key/a tell at a player's potential, it likely is not.