[Game Preview] Week 10 - Philadelphia Eagles(3-4-1) @ New York Giants (2-5)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-1) vs New York Giants (2-7)
I don’t know what to say about the NFC East Matchups. The entire division is struggling with major injuries to key players and the division is by far the worst in the NFL, but the divisional games have all been competitive with the last matchup between these two being decided by a single point. The Eagles will show up to this matchup a little bit healthier especially in weapons for Carson who will have Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, Alshon Jeffrey and Jalen Raegor for this matchup, all of whom were out last game. Carson was able to throw for 300+ yards last game, he should be able to build on that number with an added number of weapons. The Giants were able to put up points last week vs the Football Team and pull out their second W of the season. The Eagles will need to pressure Jones and force him into turning the ball over like the first matchup and the Eagles need to be able to take advantage of those turnovers. Carson said he reviewed his turnovers in the first half of the season and said he knows he needs to protect the ball better, he needs to prove it this week coming off the bye. If Carson protects the football, the Eagles should be able to move the ball against the bewildered Giants and cruise to an easy win, but if he continues to turn the ball over like the first half, I predict another sloppy NFCE matchup that goes down to the wire. Go Birds!
FOX will broadcast Sunday’s game to a regional audience. Kevin Kugler will handle the play-by-play duties and Chris Spielman will provide analysis. Laura Okmin will report from the sidelines.
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
WIP-FM
94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA
WCTO-FM
96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey
WENJ-FM
97.3 FM
Levittown, PA
WBCB-AM
1490 AM
Northumberland, PA
WEGH-FM
107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA
WPPA-AM
1360 AM
Reading, PA
WEEU-AM
830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
WEJL-FM
96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WEJL-AM
630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WBAX-AM
1240 AM
Williamsport, PA
WBZD-FM
93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE
WDEL-FM/AM
101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA
WSOX-FM
96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
LA MEGA
105.7 FM
Allentown, PA
WSAN
1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ
WIBG
1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Giants Radio
Giants Radio Bob Papa season to handle play-by-play duties for the broadcast. Former Giant Carl Banks will provide color and analysis during the game and former Giant Howard Coss will report from the sidelines.
National Radio
Sports USA will broadcast the game nationally with Josh Appel handling the play by play and Brandon Noble will provide analysis.
October 15th, 1933 at the Polo Grounds in Upper Manhattan, New York, NY. New York Giants 56 - Philadelphia Eagles 0
Points Leader
The New York Giants lead the Philadelphia Eagles (3449-3389)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 8-1 vs. the New York Giants
Joe Judge: 0-1 vs. the Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs. Joe Judge: Pederson leads 1-0
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against Giants: 7-1
Daniel Jones: Against Eagles: 0-2
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz vs Daniel Jones: Wentz leads 2-0.
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Eagles lead the Giants: 12-6
Record @ MetLife Stadium: Eagles lead the Giants: 7-2
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 19 - Giants No. 28
Record
Eagles: 3-4-1
Giants: 2-7
Last Meeting
Thursday, October 22, 2020
Eagles 22 - Giants 21
The Eagles faced off against the division rival Giants who were coming off their first win of the season and were looking for a 2nd for first year coach Joe Judge. The Eagles have moved to 2-4-1 on the season after rallying to defeat the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football, 22-21. After New York gave its best punch of the night a 97-yard touchdown drive headlined by Daniel Jones to go up 21-10 with just over six minutes to play, Philadelphia scored 12 unanswered points to earn the win. Carson Wentz led a 71-yard touchdown drive to give the Eagles the lead with just 40 seconds to play after connecting with running back Boston Scott on an 18-yard reception. Along with the comeback, he finished his night with 359 yards passing, two touchdowns and one interception while completing passes to eight different Eagles receivers. He also ran for 15 yards and a touchdown. As for the Giants, they mustered just 325 yards of offense and struggle to protect Daniel Jones throughout the contest.
Wentz led to his fourth straight must-win game and the team finished an elimination game without seven starters on offense. Already missing three starting wide receivers for the fourth straight game, the Eagles also began the game without Pro Bowl tight end Zach Ertz and right tackle Lane Johnson. Then they lost running back Miles Sanders and three-time Pro Bowl right guard Brandon Brooks in the first half. But Scott, Josh Perkins, Greg Ward, Deontay Burnett and Robert Davis combined for 16 catches on 25 targets, 225 yards receiving, 54 yards rushing and four TDs. The five players were cut a combined eight times by four teams since Aug. 31. Carson Wentz threw for 289 yards, including a 24-yard TD pass to Perkins, who was promoted from the practice squad on Nov. 30. It was the Eagles’ 7th straight win vs the Giants and clinched the NFCE. Giants coach Pat Shurmur was fired the following Monday.
Giants - For the second time in four weeks, New York beat Washington on Sunday, holding on for a 23-20 victory at FedEx Field. It was another close win for the Giants over their NFC East rival, after earning a 20-19 victory in the first meeting between the two teams in Week 6. New York built a 17-point lead by halftime, and although Washington made things interesting in the second half, it wasn't enough to come back against the Giants, who relied on early success from their offense and big plays from their defense.
Connections
Eagles Special assistant to the general manager Connor Barwin played 1 season with the Giants in 2018.
Giants coach Joe Judge is from Philadelphia, PA.
Giants Defensive Backs coach Jerome Henderson played one season for the Eagles in 1995.
Giants RB Dion Lewis was drafted by the Eagles in the 5th round of the 2011 draft and played 2 seasons for them before being traded to the Browns
Giants WR Golden Tate played half a season with the Eagles in 2018 after being traded by the Lions.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles
Giants
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter)
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
LS Rick Lovato (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz
SS Malcom Jenkings (1st Alt)
OT Lane Johnson (1st Alt
General
Referee: Clay Martin
The Eagles have won 8 consecutive games against the Giants (in-cluding the 22-21 victory at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 7), as well as 12 of the previous 13 games in the series. Philadelphia is 89-86-2 (.508) all-time vs. N.Y. Giants (since 1933).
Since being promoted to the Eagles’ active roster in Week 4, Tra-vis Fulgham ranks 5th among NFL WRs with 87.0 receiving yards per game, trailing only Davante Adams (120.8), DK Metcalf (98.2), Julio Jones (91.4) and Stefon Diggs (87.5) (min. 4 games).
Brandon Graham, who ranks 4th on the Eagles’ all-time sacks list with 58.0 career sacks, is tied for the 4th-most sacks (7.0 - 4.0 in his last 3 games) in the NFL this season, behind Aaron Donald(9.0), Myles Garrett (9.0) and Trey Hendrickson (7.5).
The Eagles defense ranks 3rd in the NFL in sacks (28.0), trailing only Pittsburgh (32.0) and Tampa Bay (29.0).
Additionally, Philadelphia ranks 4th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (209.4) as well as 10th in both total defense (340.1 ypg) and opponent third-down efficiency (39.6%).
Draft Picks
Eagles
Giants
WR Jalen Raegor
OT Andrew Thomas
QB Jalen Hurts
S Xavier McKinney
LB Davion Taylor
OT Matt Peart
S K’Von Wallace
CB Darney Holmes
OT Jack Driscoll
G Shane Lemieux
WR John Hightower
LB Cam Brown
LB Shaun Bradley
LB Carter Coughlin
WR Quez Watkins
T.J. Brunson
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
CB Chris Williamson
LB/DE Casey Toohill
LB Tae Crowder
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles
Giants
S Will Parks
CB James Bradberry
DT Javon Hargrave
LB Blake Martinez
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman
TE Levine Toilolo
CB Darius Slay
LB Kyler Fackell
OT Cameron Fleming
SS Nate Ebner
QB Colt McCoy
RB Dion Lewis
DB Dravon Askew-Henry
DT Austin Johnson
TE Eric Tomlinson
LS Casey Kreiter
CB Logan Ryan
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles
Giants
S Malcom Jenkins
QB Eli Manning
CB Ronald Darby
S Michael Thomas
RB Jordan Howard
WR Cody Latimer
WR Nelson Agholor
LB Deone Buccanon
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai
OL Mike Remmers
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill
CB Antonio Hamilton
RB Darren Sproles
DT Timmy Jernigan
LB Nigel Bradham
Milestones
Eagles QB Carson Wentz (109) needs 3 passing TDs to move up to 4th on the Eagles all-time passing yards list moving ahead of QB Norm Snead.
Eagles QB Carson Wentz (987) needs 13 yards for 1000 career rushing yards.
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox (50.5) needs 4 sacks to move up to 5th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Hugh Douglas
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (28.5) needs 1 sacks to move up to 18th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DT Jerome Brown
Giants QB Daniel Jones (4905) needs 95 passing yards for 5000 career passing yards.
Stats to Know
Shane Lemieux’s Education
Rookie OG Shane Lemieux has facial hair. Fletcher Cox has a mustache. And that’s about as much as RG Shane Lemieux will be able to mirror DT Fletcher Cox. Due to Will Hernandez’s injury, Monsieur Lemieux is in at Guard and this week will prove challenging for him, to say the least. According to PFF, the greatest NFL player evaluation service in the history of evaluation services, not a single other OLman with appreciable snaps has offered a lower Pass Block grade than him, at 12.1. For him to achieve that, while still only allowing 8 pressures (over 2 weeks: 5 & 3 pressures), is impressive. To do that you have to be monumentally bad and he can’t afford that sort of game against the Eagles’ Defensive Line.
Matchups to Watch
Carson Wentz vs. Competency
The biggest issue facing the Eagles in the short term isn't the injuries - it is the QB. That's my QB, a guy I've long defended and still believe in, but BAE has me wavering. The simple fact is Carson Wentz is a bottom 3 QB in the NFL this year and that's his fault. From accuracy, to turnovers, to shit pocket management, etc, Wentz has been trailer trash in 2020 aside from like 2, maybe 3 games. Yes, the roster has been decimated. Yes, coaching has been wildly unimpressive. However, Wentz can't take care of business irrespective of the situation around him. Backup receivers don't cause inaccurate passes. Backup offensive linemen don't make him hold onto the ball too long to where he gets hit and fumbles. No one is making him skip back and forth over the line of self-destruction and aggression. Wentz is doing that on his own. He obviously isn't taking his own advice when he says he has to take care of the ball and whatever coaching points are given to him during the week are going in one ear and out of the other. He's a 5th year pro playing worse than his rookie year. That's on him. There needs to be a come to Jesus moment with Wentz where he gets right. The Eagles can be competitive in every game they play when the QB is playing at a competent - forget high - level. Carson Wentz has shown all of us this year that his ceiling is still quite high at its peaks: the first game against the Giants on their last two drives. He's also shown his league-worst floor: SNF against Dallas. Long term and short term, Wentz must raise his floor. He doesn't need to be a hero and save the team from their sins each and every play like he seemingly tries to. FEW QBs CAN. And most don't. Steady play from him will go a long way. Right now, the coaches are calling an offensive game plan that is weak and scared of their QB. Why would they do anything different? How can anyone trust this guy not to continue to blow games? The fact is the Eagles will win this game with a clean game from their QB. It's just a crapshoot if he does.
Eagles Offensive Line vs. Giants Army of Defensive Tackles
The Giants have a really good group of interior defensive lineman and we would know since they kicked our ass in the first matchup this season. The Eagles were absent Isaac Seumalo and Brandon Brooks in that one and it showed. There is a possibility we'll have Seumalo back for this one and that would be a huge addition to an overmatched offensive line. I don't want to belittle the work of the Eagles backups and Jeff Stoutland especially since they've done an admiral job given all of the injuries; it's just undeniable the Eagles are overmatched in the trenches here, especially on the interior. Every healthy body helps. As we've seen with Wentz this year, he is a mess under pressure and navigating a muddy pocket. He'll still likely have these issues on Sunday but hopefully less so than the first matchup. The return of Seumalo and possibly Lane Johnson will also go a long way to helping the run game provide any sort of production for the offense. The Eagles prefer winning with their OL and DL; this year has been a struggle for the OL but not a complete disaster that we expected. We just need the talent to return in order to improve.
Eagles Weapons vs Giants Secondary
Perhaps I was more bearish on the Giants secondary outside of Bradberry in the first match up; I still don't think it is a very good unit, but the defensive side of the ball for the Giants is far from the biggest issue with this team. The Eagles will have Miles Sanders, Jalen Reagor, and Dallas Goedert for this game when all three were unavailable in the first contest. All three pair well with Giant-killer Boston Scott. The Eagles have enough weapons to really attack the Giants defense if they get quality play out of their QB. This Giants defense still struggles in coverage outside of Bradberry, especially in the middle of the field, which leads to a favorable outlook for Goedert. A functioning offense will take a lot of pressure off the defense and put the Eagles in the rare position of having a favorable game script.
Eagles Defensive Line vs Giants Offensive Line
This is always something to monitor for the Eagles as they only have one good cover guy on defense in Darius Slay. The Eagles struggle to match up against defenses in man coverage because they don't have the personnel to cover anyone other than Darius Slay. They struggle in zone as they don't have smart, instinctive players with awareness in zone. The LBs and Safeties are all bad in coverage. Competent offenses and QBs always expose this weakness for the Eagles and that won't change until the talent and coaching changes on the defense. This week the Eagles have another favorable matchup for their defense in Daniel Jones. Jones is a one read, timing QB, that struggles at the one thing he is supposed to be good at. Like Wentz, he is a turnover machine and holds his offense back mightily. The only difference between the two is Jones was at no point considered a top 10 QB. Even without Barkley and possibly Golden Tate, the Giants have more than enough weapons to cook the Eagles defense. Slay played a really good game in their first matchup locking down Slayton, but we saw Sterling Shepard obliterate Jalen Mills. Shepard is a good receiver, so it wasn't a high bar for him to clear in that matchup, but they can make you pay. The Eagles defensive MVP in that contest was Evan Engram; he had a tipped pass that led to an Eagles INT and a killer drop that likely would have ended the game, preventing the comeback. For all of the Giants struggles, the Eagles coverage unit simply doesn't offer enough resistance against the Giants weapons. It comes down to how much disruption the Eagles defensive line can cause, which is par for the course. The Giants offensive line has been an absolute mess this season but is coming off a great game against the Redskins vaunted defensive front. Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox continue to play at high levels. Josh Sweat has been pretty good this year. Derek Barnett is the same as usual. Lastly, Malik Jackson will return to the line up and he has been an under-the-radar stud for the Eagles this year. They also need to have their marquee free agent acquisition, Javon Hargrave, make an impact. They'll need all of these guys to play well to ensure they keep the Giants weapons in line since we know the Eagles secondary struggles stopping nosebleeds.
Although the Copa Sudamericana is not as rated as other major European continental competitions, it is still a great source of great football matches. The Copa Sudamericana is the UEL equivalent in South America, meaning that second-tier South American clubs face each other until the final, that besides the trophy itself, grants the champions a place in the next Copa Libertadores season. Our specialist in football predictions, Kate Richardson, picked two games that are set to happen this midweek in the Copa Sudamericana and gave her predictions for the matches between Defensa y Justicia vs Bahia, and Coquimbo Unido vs Junior Barranquilla. You can check Kate out here.
Defensa y Justicia - Bahia
In the second leg game of the quarter-finals of the Copa Sudamericana, we have an interesting duel between Argentines and Brazilians, with Defensa y Justicia hosting Bahia. The match will take place on Wednesday, December 16, 2020. In the first leg, a week ago in Brazil, we had a crazy match with lots of turnarounds, with the Argentines winning 3-2 on Brazilian soil. Now, with that advantage on their side and playing at home, Defensa y Justicia will do everything to ensure this result, but Bahia will certainly try to reduce the deficit and go back home with the qualification to the semifinals.
The Argentine side comes from excellent form with 3 victories in the last 4 matches played.
Bahia has lost 4 of the last 5 games.
Defensa y Justicia won the first-leg 3-2.
Bahia is in a series of 3 games without scoring away from home.
Playing at home, having been much better in the first leg, we believe that Defensa y Justicia will beat the Brazilians. Despite Bahia’s poor form away, we also think that they are going to score at least once, so bet on a Defensa y Justicia win with Both Teams Scoring. You can get more tips from Brazilian side Bahia and Argentine side Defensa y Justicia on Mightytips, the best online website giving away daily free football tips by clicking here.
Coquimbo Unido - Junior Barranquilla
In the second leg of the quarterfinals of the Copa Sudamericana Chilean club Coquimbo Unido will host Colombian side Junior Barranquilla. The match will take place at dawn on Thursday, December 17, 2020. The Chilean side will play as the home team and had sustained a first leg advantage, having surprised and beat Colombia 2-1. Now, Chileans only need a draw to move on, but Junior Barranquilla is more used to international matches, and thus, this could be the decisive factor in favor of the Colombians.
Coquimbo won only 1 of the last 4 home matches.
Junior has scored 11 goals in the last 6 away games.
The Colombian side is much more used to playing international games.
The visitors have lost only 1 of the last 7 away matches.
Despite playing away from home and being disadvantaged in the clash, we believe that Junior Barranquilla will win this match. Bet on a Junior triumph.
Will the Green Bay Packers win OVER/UNDER 9 games? By University Stats Prof!
1. Introduction
Matt LaFleur’s first season as Green Bay’s head coach has to be considered a success. He led the team to a 13-3 record, which secured the NFC North title. The Packers held off the Seahawks to a 28-23 home win in the first round of the playoffs, but were ousted by the Niners in a brutal 37-20 thumping (a game in which the Packers dugged themselves into an early 27-0 hole).
2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs) Aaron Rodgers will be entering his 16th NFL season. He had another excellent year with a 26-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio and over 4,000 passing yards. He finished as the 7th-best QB in the league according to PFF ratings. At 36 years old, he is likely to have a few good years left. After all, Drew Brees and Tom Brady posted nice statistics in their late thirties. Rodgers has been very durable throughout his career, but he’s not invincible either. Tim Boyle was the backup plan last year, and the team needed to upgrade the position while starting to think about the post-Rodgers era. Still, drafting Jordan Love was the most questionable and talked-about pick in this year’s draft. People expected the Packers to go with a veteran backup QB. Rodgers has mentioned several times he wants to play in his forties; he can still offer a good five years of solid play in the frozen tundra. Love has possesses great size, throws with velocity and he’s very mobile. The main knock on him is the decision-making and inconsistency. As a sophomore, he threw 32 TD passes versus 6 interceptions. He regressed a lot last year by posting a mediocre 20:17 TD:INT mark. Granted, his surrounding cast was very weak and he had to go through a coaching change. Love can throw from many different arm angles; he reminds people of Patrick Mahomes in this regard. He can throw a fastball or a soft touch pass. Quick note: he almost quit football when he was 14 years old after his dad committed suicide. However, he knew his dad would want him to keep playing, so he did just that. 2.2 Running Backs (RBs) Aaron Jones is a top running back in this league. Along with Jamaal Williams, they form a lethal duo. Including the playoffs, Jones ended up scoring 23 touchdowns in 18 games. His 19 regular season scores were the second most in Packers history. His numbers have increased in each of his first three years as a pro. He is also excellent as a pass catcher. Despite playing in the shadow of Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams still finished as the 17th-best RB based on PFF rankings. He does not seem like a lead back, but he’s a perfect change-of-pace guy. Much like Jones, he can do some damage as a receiver as well. Williams has been a steady performer thus far in his career. He has rushed for 450-550 yards in each of his three seasons, while catching a minimum of 25 balls. He has 15 total TDs over this three-year span. If you thought GM Brian Gutekunst made a strange move by drafting QB Jordan Love in the first round, he doubled down with another head scratcher in the 2nd round when he took A.J. Dillon. Message to Mr. Gutekunst: Aaron Rodgers needed pass catchers, not a third running back! I really don’t get this pick either. I’m not saying Dillon won’t be good in the NFL; only time will tell. However, it clearly wasn’t a position of need for the Packers. Dillon is a power back who rarely breaks off huge runs. He racked up big numbers in three seasons in Boston College. He’s unlikely to become a three-down starter, especially since he’s not a good pass catcher. He will likely be used sporadically as a rookie. 2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs) Davante Adams is one of the best at his position. He had a streak of three straight seasons with at least 10 TD receptions snapped last year, but he still caught 83 passes for 997 yards in 12 games (he missed four games because of a toe injury). Outside of Adams, all pass catchers appeared lost on the field. None of them developed a good chemistry with Rodgers. Marquez Valdes-Scantling was a huge disappointment last year. He showed promise as a rookie with over 500 receiving yards. Here’s a jaw-dropping statistic: after Week #7, MVS did not get more than 19 receiving yards in any meeting. That’s awful. One of the guys benefiting from Valdes-Scantling’s poor play was Jake Kumerow. He got more playing time than expected, but still only caught 12 passes. He is closing in on 30 years of age and is limited as an athlete, so he’s not a long-term answer for sure. Allen Lazard was also thrown into action far more than expected. He finished second in terms of receiving yards for Green Bay, but let’s face the reality: the undrafted guy remains more of a #3 or #4 WR for any team. Geronimo Allison was another bust last year. His top performance over the last 12 games (including the playoffs) was a meager 33 receiving yards. He left for another NFC North team, the Detroit Lions. In other words, the #2 role is wide open. The team hopes newly acquired Devin Funchess can step into that role. The former second rounder had his best season in 2017 with the Panthers with a 63-840-8 stat line. He signed with the Colts last year, but played just one game before breaking a collarbone. He will be 26 years old this season and provides an interesting prospect for the Packers. 2.4 Tight Ends (TEs) We’re not done talking about 2019 busts. Jimmy Graham was one of them. He clearly looks washed. He received the lowest grades of his 10-year career, and deservedly so. The Packers released him and he signed a few days later with the Bears (a horrible mind-boggling two-year, $16 million contract). Marcedes Lewis received surprisingly good marks from PFF. If you look into the numbers, the good grade occurred mainly because of efficient run and pass blocking. He’s not much of a pass catcher and he will be 36 years old when the season begins. Robert Tonyan will also be in the mix, but the guy that has the best chance to break out as a receiver in 2020 only caught three passes last year (all in the playoffs): Jace Sternberger. Taken in the third round of the 2019 draft, Sternberger was a threat at Texas A&M in college. He missed most of the regular season because of injuries, but the door is wide open with Graham’s departure. We might also see third-round rookie Josiah Deguara. He has a great motor and plays extremely hard. He’s undersized as a tight end, though. 2.5 Offensive Line (OL) The Packers had a pretty solid offensive line in 2019. All five starters managed to play at least 84% of the offensive snaps. And they all finished above-average according to PFF ratings! The bad news, however, is the Bryan Bulaga left for the Chargers. Despite turning over 30 years old, he still played at a high level. The Packers decided to replace him by signing Rick Wagner, formerly of the Lions. Wagner’s PFF grades from 2016 to 2018 were as follows: 74.0, 75.2 and 71.4. Last year, his play deteriorated a lot and he was tagged with a 59.0 grade. He finished as the #61 tackle among 81 guys. I like the fact that the team is returning four out of five guys, but replacing Bulaga with Wagner has to be viewed as a downgrade. 2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE The Packers offense finished in the middle of the pack in points scored per game. Barring major injuries, I expect about the same production in 2020. The QB and RB situations remain the same. Adding Funchess is not a huge move, but it won’t hurt. The team clearly needs someone to step up opposite of Davante Adams. At tight end, losing Jimmy Graham means close to nothing since he was so ineffective. Sternberger might bring a nice contribution, but we can hardly expect him to be a game-breaker. Finally, the OL will take a dip with the loss of Bulaga. I don’t believe Rick Wagner can do better than him. All in all, I view the additions/departures as a slight negative for Green Bay, but having so many starters returning to the lineup for a second straight season is always a good thing in the NFL. For these reasons, I expect a similar output as 2019 from this unit. Final call (2020 vs 2019): Stable
3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs) Kenny Clark had a fantastic season! He is one of the best interior rushers in the NFL. He recorded six sacks for the second straight year, and PFF ranked him as the 13th-best interior linemen out of 114 qualifiers. The same nice comments cannot be made about Dean Lowry. He had the worst season of his four-year career as a pro. He did not post a single sack and wasn’t great against the run either. Reserve Tyler Lancaster is only there to provide some depth. He isn’t particularly good in any aspect of the game. The team did not make any move regarding this position during the offseason. 3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED) During the last offseason, the Packers acquired two Smiths: Za’Darius and Preston. They burst onto the scene and got 13.5 and 12 sacks, respectively. Obviously, both received high marks for their pass rushing abilities, but Preston finished as an average linebacker overall because of mediocre run defense and poor coverage. Kyler Fackrell was a huge disappointment in 2019. After racking up 10.5 sacks in 2018, he only got one in 2019! He signed a one-year deal with the Giants. First-round pick Rashan Gary wasn’t necessarily impressive during his rookie season. He played 23% of the snaps, while obtaining two sacks but very pedestrian marks from PFF (an overall 55.8 grade, which is near the bottom among edge defenders). 3.3 Linebackers (LBs) Green Bay lost its leader in tackles from the past three years, Blake Martinez. After starting 61 of the last 64 Packers games, Martinez decided to join the New York Giants. He had the second-most tackles in the league last year, but don’t be misled by that number. Martinez still finished slight below-average (52nd out of 89 LBs) because of poor play against the run. The Packers also lost some depth at the position when B.J. Goodson left for Cleveland. Green Bay picked up a linebacker from the Browns roster: Christian Kirksey. He was picked in the 3rd round of the 2014 before being involved in all 16 games from his first four seasons in the NFL. However, he has been plagued with injuries over the most recent two years; he played 7 games in 2018 and only 2 games in 2019. He is also capable of racking up tackles, as shown by his 2016 and 2017 seasons where he obtained 146 and 138. His PFF grades during his first four seasons varied between 61.9 and 69.3. Just to give you a rough idea, a 65.0 rating would have been good for 29th place out of 89 LBs. 3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs) Jaire Alexander has done the job as the #1 corner. He has obtained 72.4 and 71.2 marks from PFF during his first two seasons, which is well-above average. He’s so-so defending the run, but his coverage skills are very good. The number two corner, Kevin King had five interceptions last year after getting just one over his first two years as a pro. He did show some improvement after two rocky years. He finished 2019 as a middle-of-the-pack corner. Tramon Williams played 74% of the snaps and had a surprisingly good season despite his age. He will be 37 when the 2020 season begins. He is currently a free agent and it remains to be seen if the Packers bring him back or not. In summary, Alexander and King are both pretty young and could still be improving, but Tramon Williams provided quality play and it’s uncertain if someone else can pick up the slack. 3.5 Safeties (S) Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage were the top two guys here. Along with Za’Darius and Preston Smith, the Adrian Amos was another excellent signing by the Packers during the 2019 offseason. Amos had been a reliable guy in Chicago for four seasons, and he continued to excel in the frozen tundra. After being selected as the #21 overall pick in the 2019 draft, Darnell Savage did show some flashes as a rookie last year. He finished as the #47 safety among 87 qualifiers, which is very satisfying for a rookie. He earned nice marks in coverage (77.4), but horrible ones against the run (37.7). Will Redmond will be back as the number three safety. He’s not starter material for sure. 2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE Most of the starters are returning in 2020. That’s the good news. The team lost their leader in tackles, Blake Martinez, as well as pass rusher Kyler Fackrell and CB Tramon Williams. The only acquisition worth of note is Christian Kirksey. Him not having played very much during the last two seasons brings some question marks. The Packers defense struggled against the run last year, and there’s no reason to believe that will change in 2020. Green Bay still finished 9th in points allowed, which was a very acceptable result. Unfortunately, a decrease in effectiveness is expected and I predict this unit will end 2020 as a middle-of-pack defense (12th – 19th in points allowed). Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small downgrade
4. Regular Season Wins
According to sportsbooks, the Green Bay Packers are expected to win 9 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”? Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:
Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
Count the proportion of seasons where the Packers won more or less than 9 games.
Here are the results (excluding the simulated years where the Pack won exactly 9 games, since in those cases your bet would have tied):
Estimated Probability
Sportsbook
Odds
ROI
OVER 9 WINS
51.4%
bwin
+115
+10.5%
UNDER 9 WINS
48.6%
Heritage Sports
+100
-2.8%
Tip: Bet OVER 9 wins Return On Investment (ROI): +10.5% Rank: 25th-highest ROI out of 32 teams Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -106 Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Packers’ 16 regular season games: HOME: -6 vs ATL, -10 vs CAR, -4.5 vs CHI, -6.5 vs DET, -11.5 vs JAX, -3 vs MIN, -2.5 vs PHI, -3.5 vs TEN. ROAD: 0 @ CHI, -2 @ DET, 0 @ HOU, +2.5 @ IND, +3 @ MIN, +5.5 @ NO, +6.5 @ SF, +2.5 @ TB. Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020. TOMORROW: I'll talk about the team whose ROI is the 24th-highest in the league, the Pittsburgh Steelers! Did you like this write-up? If so, comment below! I'd like to know YOUR opinion on what to expect from the Packers' 2020 season! Professor MJ
Will the Minnesota Vikings win OVER/UNDER 8.5 games? By University Stats Prof!
1. Introduction
The 2019 season had mitigated success for the Vikings. They secured the #6 seed in the NFC before pulling a huge upset win in overtime in New Orleans. The offense completely stalled the following week in San Francisco, though. The franchise has not gone through a losing season in five years. Head coach Mike Zimmer has really done a good job. Can the team take a forward leap and make it further into the playoffs? The team has not made it to the Super Bowl since 1976.
2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs) Kirk Cousins has received more criticism than praise since signing a huge contract with the Vikings a couple of years ago. Yet, the team posted an 18-13-1 record and Cousins has thrown 56 TD passes versus 16 interceptions. His completion rate has been excellent over those two years: 69.7% (among the best of his career). The reprimand concerned more the lack of playoff wins than the level of play itself. He cleared a hurdle by leading his team to a big playoff upset in New Orleans last season, thanks to a 4-year TD pass to Kyle Rudolph in overtime. However, he followed it up with a horrific performance in San Francisco. Don’t be misled by his 21-of-29 passes completed during the game. Minnesota flirted with the postseason record for fewest first downs in a game; they only got 7 and totaled 147 yards of offense. Still, based on PFF grades, 2019 was Cousins’ best career season. He ranked as the #6 QB in the league with an 84.1 mark. Sean Mannion will once again back up Cousins. He’s clearly not the best #2 quarterback in the league. Cousins has been extremely durable throughout his career, and the Vikes hope it stays that way. 2.2 Running Backs (RBs) In my 2019 NFC North preview, I mentioned how I believed Dalvin Cook was one of the most underrated players in the league. He had only rushed for 354 and 615 yards in his first two seasons, but he had passed my eye test. I knew that, barring injuries, he would breakout as one of the top backs in the league. He did enjoy a nice 2020 season with 1,135 rushing yards and 519 receiving yards, while racking up 13 touchdowns. Two things raise some concerns about him, though. First, his lengthy injury history. He seems to get nicked up often. Secondly, his play tailed off quite a bit towards the end of the season. During the first eight games of the season, he rushed 156 times for 823 yards, which was good for a lofty 5.3 average. However, over his final six meetings (including the playoffs) he carried the ball 84 times for 256 yards, a meager 3.0 average. After being selected in the 3rd round of the draft out of Boise State, Alexander Mattison showed promise in his first year as a pro. He had 100 rushing attempts for 462 yards, a nice 4.6 yards-per-carry average. It will be interesting to see if he can carry the load if Cook goes down. 2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs) The Vikings had one of the most talented WR duo in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. They caught 113 and 102 passes, respectively, during the 2018 season. Those figures regressed to 30 and 63 last year. Thielen only played 10 games, but he was still on pace for just 48 receptions. What was the problem? In 2018, Minnesota had the 6th-highest number of passing attempts. In 2019, that rank dropped to 30th ! That being said, the team traded Diggs to Buffalo. He expressed frustration with Cousins and they didn’t seem to be on the same page. In order to compensate for that loss, GM Rick Spielman signed Tajae Sharpe, formerly of the Titans. He will fight for the #2 role opposite Thielen. The former fifth-rounder posted decent numbers in his first three years in the league. He used to be a starter, but his playing time got cut after Tennessee drafted A.J. Brown and signed Adam Humphries. Sharpe seems to be destined to be a #2 or #3 receiver in the NFL. The team also has high hopes for first-round rookie Justin Jefferson. He was very productive at LSU and he ranked second in 15+ yard receptions over the last two seasons (only Jerry Jeudy beat him). He wasn’t spectacular as an outside target, but he had a monster season playing in the slot last year. He’s great with contested catches and has a good shot to become an immediate starter. Bisi Johnson took advantage of Chad Beebe’s injury to grab the number three role last year. The 7th round rookie posted a 31-294-3 stat line, which was “okay”, but he seems like a long shot to become a true starter. The team finally pulled the plug on the failed Laquon Treadwell experiment. He’s been nothing short of a disappointment since being the #23 overall pick in the 2016 draft. He signed a contract with the Falcons in the offseason. 2.4 Tight Ends (TEs) The Kyle Rudolph – Irv Smith combo is very solid. Both guys played all 16 games with Rudolph recording slightly better numbers. He hauled in 39 passes for 367 yards and 6 TDs, while Smith’s numbers were 36-311-2. Rudolph made some highlight reel catches, his most important one being the game-winning TD catch in overtime in New Orleans. Smith is expected to expand his role in the offense with one year of experience under his belt and Diggs off the team. He showed very nice potential despite the Vikings relying very often on the running game. 2.5 Offensive Line (OL) This unit allowed the sixth-fewest sacks in the league, but that wasn’t necessarily a great accomplishment given the offense ran the ball so often. Overall, this is an average, or slightly above-average, offensive line. Here is a rundown of each starter’s PFF rankings:
Garrett Bradbury, 30th out of 37 centers;
Brian O’Neill, 33rd out of 81 tackles;
Riley Reiff, 38th out of 81 tackles;
Pat Elflein, 39th out of 81 guards;
Josh Kline, 26th out of 81 guards.
Bradbury and O’Neill were the youngest guys as first- and second-year players. It’s worth noting that O’Neill definitely improved the quality of his play from year one to year two. Riley Reiff was a candidate for release considering his big contract, which is not in sync with his on-field performance. He’s clearly not among the top left tackles in the league. After an atrocious 2018 season, Pat Elflein did better last year. He is in his mid-twenties and should remain an adequate starter (albeit, not a great one). Josh Kline was let go by the Vikings, possibly because of cap reasons and the fact he was now on the wrong side of 30. Still, this is a bit of a surprising move given the team’s lack of depth. 2019 fourth-round pick Dru Samia or career journeyman Dakota Dozier will be fighting for Kline’s spot. The Vikings selected a late riser in the second round of this year’s draft: Ezra Cleveland. He played over 95% of the snaps in three years with Boise State. He is mobile and very athletic. He seems like Riley Reiff’s heir apparent (who seems likely to be released next offseason). 2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE The starting lineup remains fairly intact with 9-of-11 starters returning. The QB, RB and TE positions should provide similar production in 2020. The WR position took a hit with the loss of Stefon Diggs, a very dangerous playmaker. He was among the best in contested catches. Acquiring a borderline starter like Tajae Sharpe won’t be enough to replace him. Let’s hope rookie Justin Jefferson can have an impact right away. On the offensive line, Bradbury and O’Neill may take a leap given their young age. However, Josh Kline leaving the team is hardly good news. Accordingly, I expect Minnesota’s offense to fall a little bit. Offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski left the team to take over as Cleveland’s head coach, but the system will remain the same under new OC Gary Kubiak. The latter oversaw the offense from the coaches box last year, so the transition shouldn’t be too difficult. Last year, the Vikings offense scored the eight-most points in the league, and I predict this year’s ranking to lie between the 10th and 16th spot. Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small downgrade
3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs) The best interior defender for the Vikings was clearly Linval Joseph. Unfortunately, the cash-strapped Vikings had to release him. A few days later, Minnesota signed Michael Pierce. The former Raven performed at a very similar level as Joseph, but he is four years younger. The run-stuffing nose tackle’s acquisition has to be viewed as a bit of a positive for the Vikings defense. The other guys seeing time on the interior of the defensive line aren’t very good. Both Shamar Stephen and Jaleel Johnson finished way below-average according to the PFF grading system. 3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED) The Vikings had one of the most fearsome DE duo with Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen. They racked up 14.5 and 8 sacks, respectively. Casual fans probably know who Danielle Hunter is. But they don’t realize how good he is; he doesn’t get enough credit, possibly due to playing in a smaller market. If you look at the numbers, he’s been a beast. Did you know he became the youngest player in NFL history to reach the 50-sack mark? He picked up 14.5 sacks in each of the past two years, and he has averaged 10.9 over his five-year career. The former LSU player was a steal in the 3rd round of the 2015 draft! Everson Griffen is getting older at 32 years old. At the time of writing, he has yet to sign with a team. He is very likely to find a suitor, but all signs point towards him leaving Minnesota. That will leave a void for sure. Griffen has averaged 8.8 sacks during the last eight seasons. He has spent his entire 10-year career with the Vikings and has missed very few games. He’s a true warrior. So, who will take Griffen’s spot? Stephen Weatherly was a key reserve for the team last year, but he left for Carolina. Is Ifeadi Odenigbo ready to pick up the slack? He came out of nowhere to record seven sacks last year! After being chosen in the 7th round of the 2017 draft, Odenigbo barely played any snaps in his first two seasons. I seriously doubt he can be the long-term answer and I believe last year’s seven sacks were an outlier. 3.3 Linebackers (LBs) Eric Kendricks had one of the most improbable seasons last year. His PFF marks had varied between 59 and 69 since entering the league five years ago. Then, he earned a jaw-dropping 90.1 grade in 2019, which put him as the second-best linebacker in the entire league. He didn’t do much as a pass rusher, but he was great defending the run and covering people. Anthony Barr had a subpar year and finished as a below-average LB according to ProFootballFocus. He’s been a steady producer, but his grades have been all over the place during his six-year career. He received his second-lowest mark in 2019. Eric Wilson has been a reserve player since joining the league in 2017. He’ll likely have a similar role in the upcoming season. He did show adequate skills last year. 3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs) Wow, a lot of shuffling has taken place with Minnesota’s secondary during the offseason. Both 2019 starters, Trae Waynes and Xavier Rhodes, are gone to other teams. And their primary slot corner, Mackensie Alexander, also signed with another squad. Ouch. Waynes never played at the level of a #11 overall pick, but he yielded steady play during his five-year stint with the Vikings. His PFF grades have been very consistent year-over-year, and he repeatedly finished slightly above-average among all CBs. He’s the guy the team will miss the most. Let’s face the reality: Xavier Rhodes was one of the worst corners in the league last year. His play took a big hit in 2018, and things got even worse in 2019. He really needed a chance of scenery; perhaps joining the Colts will rejuvenate his career. As for Mackensie Alexander, I feel like the team should have tried harder to keep him. His first two seasons were difficult after getting drafted in the 2nd round out of Clemson, but his last couple of years were much more promising. He could have rendered some valuable services to a team that had just lost its two starters. The door is now wide open for 2018 first-rounder Mike Hughes. The jury is still out on whether he can assume a starting role in the NFL, but I guess we’ll find out very soon. The Vikings decided to address the glaring hole at the position by selecting Jeff Gladney with the 31st overall pick in this year’s draft. Gladney is a sound tackler and a good blitzer too. He was a four-year starter out of TCU, where he was one of just two players with at least 15 passes defended in each of the past two years. However, he has a lengthy injury history. 3.5 Safeties (S) Harrison Smith is a perennial All-Pro safety. He’s been racking up tackles and interceptions throughout his eight-year tenure in the NFL. Averaging close to 3 picks per season over such a long span is impressive. Talk about defying the odds. Anthony Harris went undrafted five years ago. Fast-forward to today, and he’s received 89.0 and 91.1 grades from PFF the last two seasons. He finished as the top safety in the NFL out of 87 qualifiers. In other words, the Vikings may have the best safety duo in the NFL. The only bad news is they lost depth when both Andrew Sendejo and Jayron Kearse left via free agency. 2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE Replacing Linval Joseph with Michael Pierce is a small gain for this Vikings defense, in my opinion. That’s about it for the good news for this unit. Stud pass rusher Everson Griffen seems destined to leave the team, and one of their main backups, Stephen Weatherly signed with the Panthers. At linebacker, I don’t mean to be a party pooper, but Kendricks is very unlikely to match his 2019 performance. He had been an average LB for four years; I doubt the switch suddenly went on and that he will keep being a top 5 linebacker in the NFL. Last year’s top three CBs are gone, as well as two backups at the safety position. As of now, the team hasn’t signed any free agent to replace them. This is not a surprise, considering the bad cap situation the team is in. They drafted a few guys, including Jeff Gladney late in the first round, but their impact remains to be seen. Many new faces on defense, plus a drop in talent invariably equals a big downgrade. The team allowed the fifth-fewest points in the league last year; they’ll be lucky if they finish above-average in 2020. Final call (2020 vs 2019): Big downgrade
4. Regular Season Wins
According to sportsbooks, the Minnesota Vikings are expected to win 8.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”? I'll answer this question via two different methods. 4.1 Professor MJ's Prediction I won't go into the mathematical details, but here is a summary of my own personal pick (based on my analysis above and my estimated spreads for the Vikings' 16 games): OVER 8.5 WINS
Estimated Probability: 72%
Best Odds: -121 (DraftKings)
ROI: +31.5%
UNDER 8.5 WINS
Estimated Probability: 28%
Best Odds: +139 (Pinnacle)
ROI: -33.1%
Tip: Bet OVER 8.5 wins 4.2 Based on BetOnline's Point Spreads Here is the methodology I used here:
Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
Count the proportion of seasons where the Vikings won more or less than 8.5 games.
Here are the results: OVER 8.5 WINS
Estimated Probability: 63.1%
Best Odds: -121 (DraftKings)
ROI: +15.2%
UNDER 8.5 WINS
Estimated Probability: 36.9%
Best Odds: +139 (Pinnacle)
ROI: -11.8%
Tip: Bet OVER 8.5 wins Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Vikings’ 16 regular season games:
HOME: -6 vs ATL, -9 vs CAR, -4 vs CHI, -2.5 vs DAL, -7 vs DET, -3 vs GB, -11.5 vs JAX, -3.5 vs TEN.
Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020. Tomorrow I'll preview the Dallas Cowboys! Professor MJ
Championship Week: Past mistakes I won’t make again
Alright folks - it’s go time. We all know what’s on the line. I’m older than you. And with that comes wisdom. Which doesn’t mean I’m smarter than you. On the contrary. It means I’ve taken advantage of all the extra opportunities I’ve had to screw up and I’ve somehow managed to learn from (some of) my mistakes. So here are some of the mistakes I’ve made over the 20+ years of playing fantasy that I most definitely will not be making this year. I hope it will help you avoid them as well in the most crucial (and wonderful) time of the year. 1a. Start your studs. 1b. Don’t get cute.
Matchups matter but don’t drop to a tier 3 player if you have a middle or above tier 2 or better option.
3a. Don’t ever risk kickers on injury report. So much variance and plenty of options out there. 3b. It’s perfectly ok to play the 9th ranked K for the week over the 5th ranked if weather could be a factor or if you are kicking in a dome.
Volume is king. When having a hard time choosing between two players volume is perfect tiebreaker.
If you need a tiebreaker on a tough call in your flex: RB over WR over TE
Check your opponents roster and drop any players on your roster that you know they won’t start (or that you’d be happy that they started against you) and pickup any player / defense that you like better than who they have on their roster.
Go with the sure thing. In Week 16 as we usually have Saturday games. Don’t risk waiting for an iffy play on Sunday (or Monday) if you have a comparable option who’s healthy and ready to go in a Saturday matchup.
Go with your gut. YOU got you here. No one else. You were the only one that hit submit on your lineup the last 15 consecutive weeks.
ENJOY THE MOMENT - you don’t get to play for a ring every year. Savor it. Touch yourself. Crack open that bottle of wine or imported 12 pack BEFORE the outcome is decided. You can’t control what happens next but you put yourself in position to be here. If I would’ve told you back in August that you’d be playing for a title in Week 16 with even a patchwork roster of free agent finds you almost certainly would’ve taken it.
24 Hour Rule is in effect if you lose. It sucks. But your opponent is pretty damn good at this too or they wouldn’t be here facing you. Tip your cap to them and then feel free to bitch and moan and finish off that bottle of wine or 12 pack but for the love of everything Holy - get your shit together shortly thereafter. No one cares about your fantasy team but you; don’t go covering the earth with your tales of woe if you come up short.
Bonus tip: 11. 24 Hour Rule is null and void if you win the damn thing. Buy yourself something nice. May I suggest another bottle of wine or imported 12 pack. Everybody (especially your wife who hates football and despises how much time you spend on your fantasy team each week) wants to hear about how you benched Kamara for some 3rd stringer on the Vikings named Boone and the way that Devante Parker really gelled with Fitzmagick only after you put him in your starting lineup in Week 11. Edit - Double Bonus Tip I forgot to mention: Vegas lines are your friend. You can find them online to include prop bets. You can literally see how many yards Vegas has on most major players. Including kickers and implied team point totals. USE THIS DATA. Use this as a data point in your decision making process. if trying to decide between a player in a game with a total of 39 or one with 51 go with the game (team) with the higher predicted point total. Bonus edit - basic Vegas odds explained: Totals (over / unders) are the lines Vegas sets for how many total points scored in a game. So let’s go with Bills / Pats and Texans / Bucs this week as they provide an excellent dichotomy. Bills / Pats total is 37. 37 / 2 = 18.5 points per team. Pats favored in the game by 6. So implied total is pats 21-15 over Bills. Texans / Bucs total is 51. Texans favored by 3. Implied team totals of 27-24. Player props might have: Lockett 53.5 yards (if you bet over he needs to have 54 yards receiving) If you are choosing between him and Perriman and Perriman is at 62.5 that helps you make a decision.
Week 6 NCAAF ATS Predictions, Trends and Analysis courtesy of RedAlertWagers.com
Written by Lester Cullen on October 8, 2020 Website: RedAlertWagers.com Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) Phone: THE RED LINE - (Toll-Free @ 1-844-334-2613) The Red Line - (Toll-Free @ 1-844-334-2613) - Text The Red Line to get a free exclusive release prediction. Follow The MAC on Social Media:
Subscribe toThe Gambling Report on Substack, free for 90 Days - 3-4 emails a month with all the need to know gambling information and trends happening in the industry, picks and predictions as well as direct offers from industry leading online sportsbooks. Presented byRedAlertWagers.com, MAC's Gambling Report dives into some of the best gambling industry news available, interviews with sharks, above and underground bookies, poker experts, casino operators and oddsmakers all packaged up and sent directly to you -Free for 90 days or subscribe for $39.99 a year Boom...and we’re in Week 6 of the college football season (Corona Edition), even the SEC came to play. We will take a look at some of our consensus plays and provide some opinion based insight to put together some ATS winners.
For starters we will look at the Gators/Aggies matchup. The line has fluctuated from 7 to 6.5 and currently at Caesars Palace the spread is Florida Gators -6.5 -115 and Texas A&M +6.5 -105, linemakers are playing with the juice, moving it around a bit and charging to get the dog, they must think they have the number nailed at a touchdown spread and MAC is looking to beat that number!
FloridaGatorsvsTexasA&MAggies The Florida Gators have come out of the gate hot, QB Kyle Trask throwing 10 TD passes through their opening two games of the season. They have busted open the ATS record, going 8-3-1 through their last 12 games a legit 2-0 and ranked No. 4 in the AP poll after Georgia took the lead ahead of them following the Bulldogs win over Auburn. The Aggies are 1-1 to start the season and they have a weak secondary that should get destroyed by the Gators offense. The MAC tends to stay away from Conference games because odds are usually tight & tough, it can be hard to find a solid pick, but our consensus groups have the Gators as a move and with the spread less than a TD this game has value Play - Gators -6.5 (+10 Units) QuickTrends-
Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 games overall.
Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 games as a favorite.
Over is 5-0 in Gators last 5 games on grass.
Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 8-1 in Gators last 9 games as a road favorite
Under is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games as a home underdog.
Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Under is 7-1 in Aggies last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
PittsburghPanthersvsBostonCollegeEagles If you look at the recent trends for the Panthers, you see a team that is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games. That being said, the Panthers have been winning their games outright, they are 3-1 in the early going of the season, they just can’t get a cover, it’s pathetic, oddsmakers are cashing in on Pitt. The Eagles have been great ATS, covering in 8 of their last 10, but as far as this game, our information is telling us to stay away. Boston College defense has nothing to brag about, unable to stop 3rd conversions makes a case for betting the over, the offense can’t run the ball, averaging 2.4 yards a carry, and they are last in the ACC in both of these categories. Jurkovec has thrown 2 picks, one in the end zone and the Heels took it home for a meaningless win, one good thing is they don’t lose fumbles and are +5 in turnover margin. MAC has Panthers to win this one, the line is -6 and has moved back and forth from 6.5 and 6, but most importantly MAC sees action coming in on the total and is moving on the over, opening at 46 and currently set at 44 this should be an easy 55-60 point game. The trends seems to be the under but going against the grain is why The MAC is one of the most recognized sports gamblers in the industry. MAC’sFinalScorePrediction- Pitt 35 - BC 23 Play-Over 44 (+5 Units) Play-Pitt -6 (+5 Units) QuickTrends:
Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games as an underdog
MiamiHurricanesvsClemsonTigers Given how dominant the Tigers have been in the ACC over the past few years, it is usually a bad idea to bet against them.The odds makers are giving them too much respect, our scouts are saying the line isn’t this high because of public money, it’s an inflated spread and could be a suckers bet. Let’s consider the fact that the Tigers have failed to cover this season and are now on a run of failing to cover in 4 straight games. MAC says play the ML hedge if laying the points, be smart and use bankroll management. The Hurricanes have not had a lot of joy against Clemson in recent years, but are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus conference foes. With 43.3 points scored this season they are ranked #7, this could be another over play, though with the total set at 62, we will have to wait to see some line movement before placing any action on it.MAC has no apprehension when it comes to taking a shot and going against the grain, it’s what makes him a Vegas specialty. Take Miami to cover, take them, take the points, and take it to the bank. MAC’sFinalScorePrediction- Miami 21 - Clemson 35 Play:Miami +15 (+15 Units) Play:Miami ML +450 (+4 UNITS) QuickTrends:
Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Prediction -- AEL Larisa VS Panathinaikos, away win
Match Time:28-9-2020 22:00 Monday(GMT +5.5) Greece National A--AEL LarisaVSPanathinaikos Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips| Asian Handicap Odds|Line-ups& H2H Stats ----------------------------------- Match Analysis Larissa will be hoping to bounce back here after a 1-0 Super League defeat last time out to PAOK.Christos Tzolis (16') was the scorer for PAOK.A common feature of recent Larissa games is the number of results with a nil in them.From their previous 6 clashes leading up to this one, in as many as 5 of them a bet on BTTS would've lost. Following on from being beaten in their last game against Asteras Tripolis in Super League competition, Panathinaikos and their fans will hope to get a better result this time.In that match, Panathinaikos managed 53% possession and 8 attempts at goal with 5 on target. Asteras Tripolis got 8 attempts at goal with 3 of them on target. Adrián Riera (73') was the scorer for Asteras Tripolis.Dani Poyatos's Panathinaikos have found the back of the net 5 times in the course of their most recent sextet of matches. The overall goals that have been scored against them during those same matches equals 6. Larissa WLDDDL Panathinaikos DDLWWL Head to head A look at their prior head-to-head meetings going back to 16/10/2017 tells us that Larissa have won 1 of them and Panathinaikos 4, with the tally of drawn results being 1.A combined total of 15 goals were produced between them in this period, with 5 of them from Larissa and 10 coming from To Trifylli. That is an average goals per game value of 2.5.The last league match featuring these sides was Super League match day 21 on 25/01/2020 when the final score was Larissa 0-2 Panathinaikos.In that match, Larissa had 47% possession and 5 attempts on goal with 1 on target.On the other side, Panathinaikos got 10 attempts at goal with 5 on target. Tasos Chatzigiovannis (25') and Giannis Bouzoukis (91') scored.The match was refereed by Giorgos Vreskas. Team News Larissa Marko Nunic (Cruciate Ligament Rupture) and Nikola Zizic (Strain) are unavailable for Larissa manager Michalis Grigoriou. Panathinaikos With a completely injury-free group to pick from, Panathinaikos manager Dani Poyatos does not have any fitness concerns to report coming into this game. Match Prediction We’re of the opinion that Larissa will have to perform well to get anything against this Panathinaikos side who we reckon will score one, at least. That’s why our selection here is for a hard-fought 0-1 victory for Panathinaikos at the end of the match. AEL Larisa VS Panathinaikos Pick: Panathinaikos https://preview.redd.it/ls2x87xd0vp51.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8862193f49a5539995f0e1db6d9c09702a63ec3e
Hello! We have launched our brand new tipster website - bat-bet.com! We provide you free football betting tips every day, but you can also subscribe to our Premium tips. These are our picks for the match between Switzerland and Germany. Germany is a slight favorite in this clash, but we believe the visitors are going to meet the expectations and win all three points from this clash. Germany to win 1.80 Both sides have been pretty efficient lately, and when they meet each other, football fans can enjoy a lot of goals. We think we are going to see both teams scoring in this clash. BTTS Yes 1.85 Correct score 1:3 15.00 You can check our full analysis here!
Hello, We have launched a brand-new tipster website - bat-bet.com! We bring you free daily football tips, but you will also have the opportunity to subscribe to one of our Premium packages. Our tips for the UEFA Nations League clash between Denmark and Belgium: Belgium to win BTTS Yes Correct score 1:2 You can find the full analysishere!
Hello, We have launched a brand-new tipster website - bat-bet.com! We bring you free daily football tips, but you will also have the opportunity to subscribe to one of our Premium packages. Our tips for the UEFA Nations League clash between Denmark and Belgium: Belgium to win BTTS Yes Correct score 1:2 You can find the full analysishere!
I am about to post the 3000 most common words in the English lexicon. Wish me luck...
a abandon ability able abortion about above abroad absence absolute absolutely absorb abuse academic accept access accident accompany accomplish according account accurate accuse achieve achievement acid acknowledge acquire across act action active activist activity actor actress actual actually ad adapt add addition additional address adequate adjust adjustment administration administrator admire admission admit adolescent adopt adult advance advanced advantage adventure advertising advice advise adviser advocate affair affect afford afraid African African-American after afternoon again against age agency agenda agent aggressive ago agree agreement agricultural ah ahead aid aide AIDS aim air aircraft airline airport album alcohol alive all alliance allow ally almost alone along already also alter alternative although always AM amazing American among amount analysis analyst analyze ancient and anger angle angry animal anniversary announce annual another answer anticipate anxiety any anybody anymore anyone anything anyway anywhere apart apartment apparent apparently appeal appear appearance apple application apply appoint appointment appreciate approach appropriate approval approve approximately Arab architect area argue argument arise arm armed army around arrange arrangement arrest arrival arrive art article artist artistic as Asian aside ask asleep aspect assault assert assess assessment asset assign assignment assist assistance assistant associate association assume assumption assure at athlete athletic atmosphere attach attack attempt attend attention attitude attorney attract attractive attribute audience author authority auto available average avoid award aware awareness away awful baby back background bad badly bag bake balance ball ban band bank bar barely barrel barrier base baseball basic basically basis basket basketball bathroom battery battle be beach bean bear beat beautiful beauty because become bed bedroom beer before begin beginning behavior behind being belief believe bell belong below belt bench bend beneath benefit beside besides best bet better between beyond Bible big bike bill billion bind biological bird birth birthday bit bite black blade blame blanket blind block blood blow blue board boat body bomb bombing bond bone book boom boot border born borrow boss both bother bottle bottom boundary bowl box boy boyfriend brain branch brand bread break breakfast breast breath breathe brick bridge brief briefly bright brilliant bring British broad broken brother brown brush buck budget build building bullet bunch burden burn bury bus business busy but butter button buy buyer by cabin cabinet cable cake calculate call camera camp campaign campus can Canadian cancer candidate cap capability capable capacity capital captain capture car carbon card care career careful carefully carrier carry case cash cast cat catch category Catholic cause ceiling celebrate celebration celebrity cell center central century CEO ceremony certain certainly chain chair chairman challenge chamber champion championship chance change changing channel chapter character characteristic characterize charge charity chart chase cheap check cheek cheese chef chemical chest chicken chief child childhood Chinese chip chocolate choice cholesterol choose Christian Christmas church cigarette circle circumstance cite citizen city civil civilian claim class classic classroom clean clear clearly client climate climb clinic clinical clock close closely closer clothes clothing cloud club clue cluster coach coal coalition coast coat code coffee cognitive cold collapse colleague collect collection collective college colonial color column combination combine come comedy comfort comfortable command commander comment commercial commission commit commitment committee common communicate communication community company compare comparison compete competition competitive competitor complain complaint complete completely complex complicated component compose composition comprehensive computer concentrate concentration concept concern concerned concert conclude conclusion concrete condition conduct conference confidence confident confirm conflict confront confusion Congress congressional connect connection consciousness consensus consequence conservative consider considerable consideration consist consistent constant constantly constitute constitutional construct construction consultant consume consumer consumption contact contain container contemporary content contest context continue continued contract contrast contribute contribution control controversial controversy convention conventional conversation convert conviction convince cook cookie cooking cool cooperation cop cope copy core corn corner corporate corporation correct correspondent cost cotton couch could council counselor count counter country county couple courage course court cousin cover coverage cow crack craft crash crazy cream create creation creative creature credit crew crime criminal crisis criteria critic critical criticism criticize crop cross crowd crucial cry cultural culture cup curious current currently curriculum custom customer cut cycle dad daily damage dance danger dangerous dare dark darkness data date daughter day dead deal dealer dear death debate debt decade decide decision deck declare decline decrease deep deeply deer defeat defend defendant defense defensive deficit define definitely definition degree delay deliver delivery demand democracy Democrat democratic demonstrate demonstration deny department depend dependent depending depict depression depth deputy derive describe description desert deserve design designer desire desk desperate despite destroy destruction detail detailed detect determine develop developing development device devote dialogue die diet differ difference different differently difficult difficulty dig digital dimension dining dinner direct direction directly director dirt dirty disability disagree disappear disaster discipline discourse discover discovery discrimination discuss discussion disease dish dismiss disorder display dispute distance distant distinct distinction distinguish distribute distribution district diverse diversity divide division divorce DNA do doctor document dog domestic dominant dominate door double doubt down downtown dozen draft drag drama dramatic dramatically draw drawing dream dress drink drive driver drop drug dry due during dust duty each eager ear early earn earnings earth ease easily east eastern easy eat economic economics economist economy edge edition editor educate education educational educator effect effective effectively efficiency efficient effort egg eight either elderly elect election electric electricity electronic element elementary eliminate elite else elsewhere e-mail embrace emerge emergency emission emotion emotional emphasis emphasize employ employee employer employment empty enable encounter encourage end enemy energy enforcement engage engine engineer engineering English enhance enjoy enormous enough ensure enter enterprise entertainment entire entirely entrance entry environment environmental episode equal equally equipment era error escape especially essay essential essentially establish establishment estate estimate etc ethics ethnic European evaluate evaluation even evening event eventually ever every everybody everyday everyone everything everywhere evidence evolution evolve exact exactly examination examine example exceed excellent except exception exchange exciting executive exercise exhibit exhibition exist existence existing expand expansion expect expectation expense expensive experience experiment expert explain explanation explode explore explosion expose exposure express expression extend extension extensive extent external extra extraordinary extreme extremely eye fabric face facility fact factor factory faculty fade fail failure fair fairly faith fall false familiar family famous fan fantasy far farm farmer fashion fast fat fate father fault favor favorite fear feature federal fee feed feel feeling fellow female fence few fewer fiber fiction field fifteen fifth fifty fight fighter fighting figure file fill film final finally finance financial find finding fine finger finish fire firm first fish fishing fit fitness five fix flag flame flat flavor flee flesh flight float floor flow flower fly focus folk follow following food foot football for force foreign forest forever forget form formal formation former formula forth fortune forward found foundation founder four fourth frame framework free freedom freeze French frequency frequent frequently fresh friend friendly friendship from front fruit frustration fuel full fully fun function fund fundamental funding funeral funny furniture furthermore future gain galaxy gallery game gang gap garage garden garlic gas gate gather gay gaze gear gender gene general generally generate generation genetic gentleman gently German gesture get ghost giant gift gifted girl girlfriend give given glad glance glass global glove go goal God gold golden golf good government governor grab grade gradually graduate grain grand grandfather grandmother grant grass grave gray great greatest green grocery ground group grow growing growth guarantee guard guess guest guide guideline guilty gun guy habit habitat hair half hall hand handful handle hang happen happy hard hardly hat hate have he head headline headquarters health healthy hear hearing heart heat heaven heavily heavy heel height helicopter hell hello help helpful her here heritage hero herself hey hi hide high highlight highly highway hill him himself hip hire his historian historic historical history hit hold hole holiday holy home homeless honest honey honor hope horizon horror horse hospital host hot hotel hour house household housing how however huge human humor hundred hungry hunter hunting hurt husband hypothesis I ice idea ideal identification identify identity ie if ignore ill illegal illness illustrate image imagination imagine immediate immediately immigrant immigration impact implement implication imply importance important impose impossible impress impression impressive improve improvement in incentive incident include including income incorporate increase increased increasing increasingly incredible indeed independence independent index Indian indicate indication individual industrial industry infant infection inflation influence inform information ingredient initial initially initiative injury inner innocent inquiry inside insight insist inspire install instance instead institution institutional instruction instructor instrument insurance intellectual intelligence intend intense intensity intention interaction interest interested interesting internal international Internet interpret interpretation intervention interview into introduce introduction invasion invest investigate investigation investigator investment investor invite involve involved involvement Iraqi Irish iron Islamic island Israeli issue it Italian item its itself jacket jail Japanese jet Jew Jewish job join joint joke journal journalist journey joy judge judgment juice jump junior jury just justice justify keep key kick kid kill killer killing kind king kiss kitchen knee knife knock know knowledge lab label labor laboratory lack lady lake land landscape language lap large largely last late later Latin latter laugh launch law lawn lawsuit lawyer lay layer lead leader leadership leading leaf league lean learn learning least leather leave left leg legacy legal legend legislation legitimate lemon length less lesson let letter level liberal library license lie life lifestyle lifetime lift light like likely limit limitation limited line link lip list listen literally literary literature little live living load loan local locate location lock long long-term look loose lose loss lost lot lots loud love lovely lover low lower luck lucky lunch lung machine mad magazine mail main mainly maintain maintenance major majority make maker makeup male mall man manage management manager manner manufacturer manufacturing many map margin mark market marketing marriage married marry mask mass massive master match material math matter may maybe mayor me meal mean meaning meanwhile measure measurement meat mechanism media medical medication medicine medium meet meeting member membership memory mental mention menu mere merely mess message metal meter method Mexican middle might military milk million mind mine minister minor minority minute miracle mirror miss missile mission mistake mix mixture mm-hmm mode model moderate modern modest mom moment money monitor month mood moon moral more moreover morning mortgage most mostly mother motion motivation motor mount mountain mouse mouth move movement movie Mr Mrs Ms much multiple murder muscle museum music musical musician Muslim must mutual my myself mystery myth naked name narrative narrow nation national native natural naturally nature near nearby nearly necessarily necessary neck need negative negotiate negotiation neighbor neighborhood neither nerve nervous net network never nevertheless new newly news newspaper next nice night nine no nobody nod noise nomination none nonetheless nor normal normally north northern nose not note nothing notice notion novel now nowhere n't nuclear number numerous nurse nut object objective obligation observation observe observer obtain obvious obviously occasion occasionally occupation occupy occur ocean odd odds of off offense offensive offer office officer official often oh oil ok okay old Olympic on once one ongoing onion online only onto open opening operate operating operation operator opinion opponent opportunity oppose opposite opposition option or orange order ordinary organic organization organize orientation origin original originally other others otherwise ought our ourselves out outcome outside oven over overall overcome overlook owe own owner pace pack package page pain painful paint painter painting pair pale Palestinian palm pan panel pant paper parent park parking part participant participate participation particular particularly partly partner partnership party pass passage passenger passion past patch path patient pattern pause pay payment PC peace peak peer penalty people pepper per perceive percentage perception perfect perfectly perform performance perhaps period permanent permission permit person personal personality personally personnel perspective persuade pet phase phenomenon philosophy phone photo photograph photographer phrase physical physically physician piano pick picture pie piece pile pilot pine pink pipe pitch place plan plane planet planning plant plastic plate platform play player please pleasure plenty plot plus PM pocket poem poet poetry point pole police policy political politically politician politics poll pollution pool poor pop popular population porch port portion portrait portray pose position positive possess possibility possible possibly post pot potato potential potentially pound pour poverty powder power powerful practical practice pray prayer precisely predict prefer preference pregnancy pregnant preparation prepare prescription presence present presentation preserve president presidential press pressure pretend pretty prevent previous previously price pride priest primarily primary prime principal principle print prior priority prison prisoner privacy private probably problem procedure proceed process produce producer product production profession professional professor profile profit program progress project prominent promise promote prompt proof proper properly property proportion proposal propose proposed prosecutor prospect protect protection protein protest proud prove provide provider province provision psychological psychologist psychology public publication publicly publish publisher pull punishment purchase pure purpose pursue push put qualify quality quarter quarterback question quick quickly quiet quietly quit quite quote race racial radical radio rail rain raise range rank rapid rapidly rare rarely rate rather rating ratio raw reach react reaction read reader reading ready real reality realize really reason reasonable recall receive recent recently recipe recognition recognize recommend recommendation record recording recover recovery recruit red reduce reduction refer reference reflect reflection reform refugee refuse regard regarding regardless regime region regional register regular regularly regulate regulation reinforce reject relate relation relationship relative relatively relax release relevant relief religion religious rely remain remaining remarkable remember remind remote remove repeat repeatedly replace reply report reporter represent representation representative Republican reputation request require requirement research researcher resemble reservation resident resist resistance resolution resolve resort resource respect respond respondent response responsibility responsible rest restaurant restore restriction result retain retire retirement return reveal revenue review revolution rhythm rice rich rid ride rifle right ring rise risk river road rock role roll romantic roof room root rope rose rough roughly round route routine row rub rule run running rural rush Russian sacred sad safe safety sake salad salary sale sales salt same sample sanction sand satellite satisfaction satisfy sauce save saving say scale scandal scared scenario scene schedule scheme scholar scholarship school science scientific scientist scope score scream screen script sea search season seat second secret secretary section sector secure security see seed seek seem segment seize select selection self sell Senate senator send senior sense sensitive sentence separate sequence series serious seriously serve service session set setting settle settlement seven several severe sex sexual shade shadow shake shall shape share sharp she sheet shelf shell shelter shift shine ship shirt shit shock shoe shoot shooting shop shopping shore short shortly shot should shoulder shout show shower shrug shut sick side sigh sight sign signal significance significant significantly silence silent silver similar similarly simple simply sin since sing singer single sink sir sister sit site situation six size ski skill skin sky slave sleep slice slide slight slightly slip slow slowly small smart smell smile smoke smooth snap snow so so-called soccer social society soft software soil solar soldier solid solution solve some somebody somehow someone something sometimes somewhat somewhere son song soon sophisticated sorry sort soul sound soup source south southern Soviet space Spanish speak speaker special specialist species specific specifically speech speed spend spending spin spirit spiritual split spokesman sport spot spread spring square squeeze stability stable staff stage stair stake stand standard standing star stare start state statement station statistics status stay steady steal steel step stick still stir stock stomach stone stop storage store storm story straight strange stranger strategic strategy stream street strength strengthen stress stretch strike string strip stroke strong strongly structure struggle student studio study stuff stupid style subject submit subsequent substance substantial succeed success successful successfully such sudden suddenly sue suffer sufficient sugar suggest suggestion suicide suit summer summit sun super supply support supporter suppose supposed Supreme sure surely surface surgery surprise surprised surprising surprisingly surround survey survival survive survivor suspect sustain swear sweep sweet swim swing switch symbol symptom system table tablespoon tactic tail take tale talent talk tall tank tap tape target task taste tax taxpayer tea teach teacher teaching team tear teaspoon technical technique technology teen teenager telephone telescope television tell temperature temporary ten tend tendency tennis tension tent term terms terrible territory terror terrorism terrorist test testify testimony testing text than thank thanks that the theater their them theme themselves then theory therapy there therefore these they thick thin thing think thinking third thirty this those though thought thousand threat threaten three throat through throughout throw thus ticket tie tight time tiny tip tire tired tissue title to tobacco today toe together tomato tomorrow tone tongue tonight too tool tooth top topic toss total totally touch tough tour tourist tournament toward towards tower town toy trace track trade tradition traditional traffic tragedy trail train training transfer transform transformation transition translate transportation travel treat treatment treaty tree tremendous trend trial tribe trick trip troop trouble truck true truly trust truth try tube tunnel turn TV twelve twenty twice twin two type typical typically ugly ultimate ultimately unable uncle under undergo understand understanding unfortunately uniform union unique unit United universal universe university unknown unless unlike unlikely until unusual up upon upper urban urge us use used useful user usual usually utility vacation valley valuable value variable variation variety various vary vast vegetable vehicle venture version versus very vessel veteran via victim victory video view viewer village violate violation violence violent virtually virtue virus visible vision visit visitor visual vital voice volume volunteer vote voter vs vulnerable wage wait wake walk wall wander want war warm warn warning wash waste watch water wave way we weak wealth wealthy weapon wear weather wedding week weekend weekly weigh weight welcome welfare well west western wet what whatever wheel when whenever where whereas whether which while whisper white who whole whom whose why wide widely widespread wife wild will willing win wind window wine wing winner winter wipe wire wisdom wise wish with withdraw within without witness woman wonder wonderful wood wooden word work worker working works workshop world worried worry worth would wound wrap write writer writing wrong yard yeah year yell yellow yes yesterday yet yield you young your yours yourself youth zone
[OC] Juventus and "Sarriball": An Analysis of the Current Squad of Juventus, the Potential Transfer Acquisitions, and the Recently Appointed Maurizio Sarri
Introduction
Maurizio Sarri has returned to Serie A after just one year in the Premier League. He takes charge of Juventus, who relieved Massimiliano Allegri of his duties. Sarri has said some unsavory things about Juve during his time at Napoli, but he now finds himself leading the 8-time defending champions. He is notorious for his style of play, dubbed “Sarriball”. The biggest question now becomes how will Juventus adapt to his style of play? What players may need to leave, and who could be brought in to support Sarri’s style? That’s the focus of this analysis today, to assess just how “Sarriball” might work (or if changes should be made) for the reigning champions.
Tactical Styles and Adjustments
Sarri’s Tactics (Chelsea and Napoli) It’s important to see what “Sarriball” is and how it’s worked before diving into any predictions. I would recommend watching these Tifo Football videos from his Chelsea and Napoli sides as a really good look into his tactical system. However, I can give a decent summary with both this depth chart and tactical analysis below. https://preview.redd.it/dk7xb0zzk8631.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=2fd5efd197c492292cbe2d073ca3791baad9d78e https://preview.redd.it/yi3ak1y1l8631.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=b4365a05b35a61fa9b1688378a641a80c181abb5 Sarri’s 4-3-3 features a midfield three of two central midfielders and a defensive midfielder. The left-sided central midfielder (one of Marek Hamsik, Piotr Zielinski, Ross Barkley, or Mateo Kovacic) usually operates more offensively than the right-sided one (Allan or N’golo Kanté), who operates from box-to-box. The defensive midfielder (Jorginho for both sides) looks to act as a bridge between the build-up play of defenders (Kalidou Koulibaly as the strongest example of this) and the midfield. The goalkeeper needs to be strong on the ball and work with the central defenders in the build-up. The central defenders need to be particularly strong carrying the ball forward, making passes through the midfield, and provide an option for the defensive midfield. The fullbacks must provide options for the central midfielders and wingers and work in a triangle in the opponent’s half of the pitch. Generally, the left-sided winger will operate more as an inside forward who will look to cut inside and play off of the central striker (Lorenzo Insigne and Eden Hazard being perfectly suited for the offensive portion of this role). The right-sided winger drops off a bit more and plays a bit wider. This works the same for the fullbacks, as the left back tends to advance further forward than the right back (Emerson/Marcos Alonso get further forward than Azpilicueta). The sole striker will need to drop off to support the midfield’s vertical build-up, but also be the focal point of getting shots off. Movement and awareness is an absolute requisite for this position. This is part of the reason that Chelsea struggled to adapt to Sarri’s style, given that their striker’s were poor in at least one of those area’s. While Dries Mertens’s speed, movement, build-up play, and generally good finishing made him an ideal candidate for the striker role, the same can’t be said for any of Chelsea’s strikers. Alvaro Morata’s poor movement in the attacking third and often times abysmal finishing saw him fall out of favor, Olivier Giroud’s slow pace meant that even his great build-up play and precise movement meant he couldn’t work well as a sole striker, and Gonzalo Higuain, who previously flourished under Sarri, lacked the clinical finishing that supplemented his movement. Sarri was sometimes even forced to use Hazard in the striker position. As you can see from this table, Chelsea’s strikers struggled to replicate Mertens’s form I've talked previously about the lack of precision in Expected Goals and Assists, but here it shows Mertens's solid finishing and chance creation compared to the Chelsea Strikers. One of the more damning stats is that even with more minutes than all of the Chelsea forwards, Mertens was caught offsides almost three times less (13) than the forwards listed (37). It shows just how unsuited Chelsea’s strikers were to Sarri’s system (or in Higuaín’s case, how much he has regressed). The reason for Sarri’s struggles could also be down to the style of play between the two leagues. Many people criticized Sarri for his style of play, saying it could never work in the Premier League. They may not be wrong on that account, seeing as though there is in general style of play difference amongst the two leagues. This is highlighted by this article from Opta. Although it focuses on the Eredivisie, there are interesting insights for the two leagues we want to focus on. It shows how the Premier League defends more compactly within their own box and attacks more directly in the opponent’s half. This is compared with the Serie A which has lots of build-up play in the center (with a bigger focus on left-sided attacks vs. right-sided attacks) and a higher defensively line. Sarri’s style of build-up play perhaps wasn’t as effective against sides holding very deep, nor was his defensive high-line ideal against a more direct style of attack (Tifo has an entire video dedicated to this as well). Allegri’s Tactics It’s also important to take a look at how Juventus faired under Allegri, and the comparisons that can be made to Sarri’s style. The biggest difficulty with that is simply that Allegri doesn’t really favor a single system. He is renowned for changing styles between matches to foster rotation amongst his versatile players. This within itself will be difficult for Sarri at Juventus, to get them to focus on a single style. On the positive side, Allegri did seem to use a 4-3-3 some of the time. As a bonus, Juventus had more opportunities and shot more from the left side than from the right. Pretty similar to Sarri’s style. The biggest issue comes with defensive styles. Sarri favors high presses to either win the ball back quickly or force teams to clear the ball. Allegri’s Juventus do not press aggressively, looking more for interceptions at the right moment. What needs to Change? Obviously, the defensive style will need an overhaul. There is a silver lining for Sarri, in that Juventus usually finds themselves in the opponent’s half more often than Chelsea did last year. In fact, a defensive comparison shows that Juventus actually defended more actively than Chelsea did last year. The difference in tackles and interceptions are notable for the type of pressing style, but the lower number of blocks showed how little Juventus were under pressure. While this isn’t too reflective of the pressing styles, it does show that Sarri will have less to worry about in enforcing his defensive style. Having a more dominant team that can control possession more effectively should support any initial defensive shortcomings. Outside of that, getting the team to buy into one system may prove to be a challenge, even with the versatility at Sarri’s disposal. The biggest thing going for Sarri is that he is back in the Serie A, which will make his style of play more effective.
Individual Players
With the tactics and changes lined-up, let’s look at the players Juventus have and see where they could fit in the squad. The Ronaldo Factor Sarri has had world-class talent at his disposal (Eden Hazard, Dries Mertens, Kalidou Koulibaly, etc.), but at Juventus, he gets a shot at Cristiano Ronaldo. The Portuguese star is in the twilight of his career, but you couldn’t tell by looking at his stats or his physique. Having previously solely operating on the left wing, Ronaldo has been frequently deployed at the striker position. His aerial prowess and technical ability have translated solidly to a new league. The question now becomes, how will he perform under Sarri? Theoretically, Ronaldo should be a perfect fit for this system, given his incredible off-the-ball movement and willingness to drop deeper and receive the ball. He should be perfect to build off from if you are one of his wingers. The problem could be in the pressing style. While Ronaldo is again a great physical specimen, he is still aging, and may not respond as well to such an aggressive defensive style. He may need more frequent rest than he is accustomed to. Ronaldo could once again become an option on the left wing if Sarri elects to, given Ronaldo’s prowess there as well (and potential lack at the left wing position, as I will dive into later). Using him as an inside forward who is also a direct outlet could be an interesting choice for Sarri. Wherever he elects to play him, Sarri must utilize the aging Ronaldo accordingly to maximize his world-class ability. No Jorginho? No Problem Sarri is well known for his preference of Jorginho as his number six, with the Italian International transferring alongside Sarri to Chelsea. However, it is very unlikely that the Chelsea midfielder will elect to go to Juventus (and that’s not to say Chelsea would sell him cheaply either). However, there is not a need for concern. Miralem Pjanic represents an excellent emulator (perhaps even successor) of the Italian International. While the Bosnian is usually placed within a flat midfield three, he tends to play the furthest back, almost operating in the defensive midfield role. He has had two german midfield partners who have shouldered the defensive portion of the task (Emre Can last season, and Sami Khedira in seasons previous), and Blaise Matuidi also tends to play a defensive-minded role. This is shown in the statistics, where Jorginho blows Pjanic away in about every defensive category (even in per 90 stats, so the difference in minutes are accounted for). But still, there are incredible signs for the two in terms of the passing side of the role. Again, xG Buildup is only there to be a bit more fair to Jorghino's involvement, but still shouldn't be taken as too precise. Yes, both operated in different roles in different positions, so perhaps early comparisons are a bit short-sited. But the lack of passing depth from the aforementioned german midfielders makes Pjanic the best candidate for the job. Plus, his set-piece prowess should make his prospects look even better. I’d look for the Bosnian midfielder to be a mainstay in Sarri’s side. Does Dybala Work? Transfer rumors are always going to be deceptive and usually untrue. However, given that this post is a prediction for the future, some inferences are going to have to be made, even with all of the noise of the tabloids. One of the players rumored to leave is João Cancelo. There is a very high chance he will leave to Manchester City, so we’ll get to filling the right back role in short time. But what about Paulo Dybala? He’s been linked to a few teams, but why would Juventus want to sell their number 10, especially at such a prime age? Well, the first issue is the number 10. Not the jersey, but in a general sense he does not positionally seem to be suited to Sarri’s style. If he were to be played as the right wing, there would be issues with him being predominantly left-footed. Dybala tends to cut inside and push higher up the pitch, which would be great if he were right-footed and played on the left wing. He also featured a lot at attacking mid, but that position simply doesn’t exist within Sarri’s system. The best he could do would be the most advanced of the three midfielders, on the left side. Perhaps his best position would be as the central striker. He played there a few times last season, but almost always featured there during his first season at Juventus and his time at Palermo. He does have the qualities of a good Sarri striker, with quick movement and good technical ability to work with the wings. However, that would mean pushing Ronaldo to the left wing, which may not be in the team’s best interests. It’s a puzzling situation that may convince Juventus to potentially try him out in the market. Filling Out the Rest What about the rest of the squad? How will they work within Sarri’s system? Who will need to go and who will slot right in? Let’s go position by position and assess the rest of the squad. - Goalkeeper will probably still be in the hands of Wojiech Szczesny, although Sarri may want to experiment between him and Mattia Perin in the early parts of the season. The biggest requisites for goalkeeper in Sarri’s system is comfortableness on the ball and distribution, so Sarri will look to see who could fit that bill the best. - Center Backs are probably the most solidified with the current squad list. Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci will most certainly reprise their roles. Both are incredibly comfortable on the ball, with Leonard Bonucci possessing ball-playing skills (and sometimes defensive lapses) reminiscent and probably exceeding David Luiz’s at Chelsea. Getting those two to work well with a sole holding midfielder will be crucial to getting both a solid defensive style and a solid build-up play. Danielle Rugani should fill in, though not particularly as soundly, should either of the two be unavailable. - Right back becomes a bit of a question mark with the potential departure of João Cancelo. Even then, he may not have fit Sarri’s style of play best. Cancelo’s attack-mindedness may not have suited what Sarri wants in a more defensively focused right back, but he definitely was the best quality option. As it stands, Mattia De Sciglio, who has featured on both the right and left side of defense, will be first in line to take on the role. However, there may be a new candidate to take the role, who I will discuss later. - Left back in theory belongs to Alex Sandro. Even though his performances last year were perhaps not up to his usual standard, he still possesses incredible quality at the left back position. In Sarri’s system, where he will look to be a wide outlet and be encouraged to move further up the pitch, he may find another level. De Sciglio could also be another option, rotating between left and right fullback. - I’ve already discussed Pjanic as the best fitting holding midfielder, but Khedira and Can could still be options here if they can adapt to Sarri’s style of play. - Central midfield is where we see an insane amount of depth and perhaps not enough standout quality. We’ll start with the more defensive right midfielder, and Blaise Matuidi seems like a solid candidate. He’s featured a lot in the Juventus side and is perhaps the most comparable to Kanté of the options. And before you point of the obviousnesses of a French center mid being similar to Kanté, let me at least talk about the qualities these players possess. Both are engines in the midfield who can operate box to box with decent holding of the ball. Both have some deficiencies in the attacking third but can still contribute. The biggest problem comes with Matuidi perhaps being unable to adapt to Sarri’s style of play. There are certainly some questions about his ability to work in the build-up, so he may indeed be sold. Rodrigo Bentacur could be a great option here, given his well-roundedness and versatility. He works well defensively, can carry the ball, and has great qualities in the final third as well. He’s still quite young, but could be the answer here, if he understands that he must be the more defensive minded of the two center mids. And I do have to bring up Sami Khedira and Emre Can again. Can could actually be great here as well, as he is defensively astute (perhaps more so than Bentacur) and still has enough quality to hold the ball. It’s the attacking part which could spell issues, as he lacks the quality in the final third. Same goes for Khedira, who was utilized even less than Can and is considerably older. Khedira being sold seems quite likely. Still, that’s four respectively options to fill one position. - The left central midfielder is essentially whoever is decided amongst the other three midfielders who don’t make it. Remember, this is the more attack oriented of the two central midfielders, so Bentacur seems like a solid shout for the role if he isn’t decided for the right-sided spot. Dybala could be an answer if he is willing to learn the pressing system and track back enough. He would represent the best attacking option of the bunch. However, there is a new signing that could be the answer here as well (who I will discuss later, sorry to have so many cliffhangers). - Left wing, as I mentioned before runs into some problems. Perhaps not as many problems as Hazard created defensively for Chelsea under Sarri’s system, but still enough to discuss. I’ve already mentioned how Ronaldo could work well, but may work better at striker. Douglas Costa leaps out as having solid potential. With a similar skill set and a similar physique to both Hazard and Insigne, Costa seems like an obvious choice. But again, he is primarily left-footed, opting more to cross than to cut inside. Sure, his ability to beat his man is similar, but Sarri’s insistence may see him lose out. He already didn’t feature as much under Allegri last season, so who knows what could happen with him. Early signs are positive for the Brazilian, but he’ll have to prove his place after a quiet season. Another potential option is Mario Mandzukic. While featuring more as a central striker under Allegri, he certainly has had experience as a left-midfielder in a Juventus side. He is notorious for his stamina and pressing ability, which would suit Sarri well. His aerial prowess would be an interesting exploit as well, getting on the end of more direct and vertical passing, which could be an interesting option that adds to the team’s versatility. However, it’s unclear whether he has the technical ability to operate in these tight spaces, and is getting up there in age. Left wing is another interesting position to be in (pun intended) that doesn’t have any standout answer. - The right wing has great options, but could come down to transfers and a sense of preference. Dybala was mentioned earlier, and he would be the greatest quality here. But I’ve already talked about how he may not be best suited for the role. Two solid candidates could also have a say. Juan Cuadrado, who himself made a switch from Chelsea to Juve, has some solid credentials. Quick, skillful, and able to play out wide, he fits the bill for a Sarri right winger. As a bonus, he already is suited to play more defensively, featuring often as a right midfielder in a 4-4-2, or even times at right back (which I doubt he would play as under Sarri). Federico Bernardeschi also has a good look-in. Although he is left-footed, he still has a solid right foot and has all the qualities Sarri could look for, with the added set piece threat. Incidentally, both players made their mark through Fiorentina, so each has had similar styles impressed on each other. It could turn into another Willian/Pedro situation, where one plays for 60 minutes while the other gets the last 30. However, it could also be likely that if Dybala is chosen for the right wing role, that Cuadrado could leave the club. - The striker position gets messy, and potentially changes what happens to the other positions. It’s crucial that Sarri gets his striker call right, as that is what hurt him the most at Chelsea. His decision at striker should really be his first call, with the other positions trickling down. Ronaldo seems the obvious call given the aforementioned reasons, but getting him to press the way Sarri wants will be interesting. Ronaldo has also usually featured as a striker with another striker, whether with Manduzkic or Dybala at Juve, Karim Benzema at Real Madrid, or with Gancolo Guedes and the young Joao Felix in the Portugal set-up. If Sarri believes shifting Ronaldo to the left is the right call, then maybe Dybala is the answer. He’ll have to go back to a similar role as when he first joined Juventus and be comfortable as a lone striker. Mario Manduzkic could also be the answer here. He played centrally for most of last year, and has the hold-up play and movement that Sarri will look for. However, at his age, Sarri will have to bet on him not regressing like Higuaín at Chelsea. There is of course a fourth option in the young Moise Kean. He stepped in when Ronaldo was injured and played extremely well. His movement and finishing could be enticing as well. However, he’s still quite young, and needs to become more polished in the build-up play before he should be considered for the starting role. I’d look to see him come off the bench whenever Juventus are in trouble.
New Signings
Bringing up the tabloids again, Juventus have been linked to a multitude of new signings to work in Sarri’s system. Let’s finally discuss these potential new players and see what they could bring to the table should they come to Juve. Aaron Ramsey, 28, Arsenal (Confirmed Signing for Juventus) There is one player we know for sure is coming. Aaron Ramsey will be leaving London for Turin this summer on a free transfer from Arsenal. Some critics has scoffed at his hefty wage bill, but I think Ramsey could prove vital for Sarri’s system. He featured a lot as an attacking midfielder last season under Unai Emery, but was deployed almost the same amount in the central midfield. Ramsey has incredible holding of the ball and ability to work with wingers in the build-up play. His willingness to push further out wide could help set up the passing triangles that Sarri is looking for with the left back and left wing. The biggest concern though is coming from the Premier League. We’ve already seen that things do not translate smoothly between Serie A and the Premier League, referring of course to Sarri’s style of play. If Ramsey can make that adjustment and make it fast, he could be vital to Sarri’s side. Elseid Hysaj, 25, Napoli The right back issue has had two possible solutions linked. We’ll start with the least likely, with Elseid Hysaj as a potential rumor. Sarri has of course worked with Hysaj before, so having someone who knows the system could prove vital. However, with Napoli's president, Aurelio De Laurentiis, being openly hostile with Juventus in the past and with his berating words of Sarri’s betrayal, Napoli will be unlikely to want to give up the Albanian right back. Kieran Trippier, 28, Tottenham The option that has been much maligned but the most linked has been Tottenham full back Kieran Trippier. Juventus may well be getting two players from North London sides. Trippier had come off the back of a stellar 2017/2018 Premier League season and one of the best World Cup performances in the English side. Last season, there was a drop-off in performance which saw Trippier’s quality to be doubted. Sarri has had an up close and personal look at Trippier at Chelsea, and may well remember the own goal Trippier scored for his side. However, this is just one moment in one match, no matter how embarrassing. The truth is, Juventus are going to need a fullback, and their options are frankly limited. Trippier is well known for his crossing ability, both from set pieces and from open play. Having him cross from deep into Ronaldo or Manduzkic almost sounds like cheating. The biggest concern of course is going to be the defensive adjustment. Trippier will not only have to adjust to a single system (as Mauricio Pochettino changed systems almost as frequently as Allegri did), but he will have to adjust to an entire new league with a completely different defensive makeup. Trippier has also looked the strongest in a 5-at-the back like he did for the English side, as he has struggled last season in a four at the back. It would certainly be a gamble to see if Trippier could adjust defensively to Sarri’s style. But the offensive contributions he could provide may just be what Sarri will need in his right back. Matthijs De Ligt, 19, Ajax If Juventus are to get their hands on perhaps the most coveted young center back in Europe, then their depth problem at center back is instantly resolved. Matthijs De Ligt has the makings to be not only one of the best center backs in Europe, but a perfect Sarri center back. He can deal with the aerial balls caused by the high press (he won almost four aerial duels a game last year). He had a freakish 90% pass accuracy in the Eredivisie last season. He’s an aerial threat from set pieces (Juventus fans won’t forget his header against them in the Champions League). He’s accustomed to both passing short and working with a defensive mid in Frenkie De Jong. He’s worked with another ball-playing center back in Daley Blind. He was played under a one system coach that used a 4-3-3 in Erik ten Hag (granted with a different midfield shape). He’s Ajax’s captain at 19. Everything seems in perfect order for someone like De Ligt to be an instant success in Sarri’s system. The only potential issue comes with the style of play between Eredivise and Serie A. Looking back at the style of play article by Opta, it becomes clear that possession is held mostly with the two center backs, rather than quicker, more vertical build up play through the midfield. While Ajax’s center back do play a bit more progressively (especially under ten Hag), it will still be a change in system. But again, De Ligt is still only 19 years old, and could be chosen over one of the Italian center backs if Sarri elects to do so. This could represent a massive investment in Juventus’s future. Adrien Rabiot, 24, PSG (Available on Free Transfer) Juventus have also been linked to three midfielders of top quality. Let’s start with the most likely in Adrien Rabiot. He’s available on a free transfer following his fallout with Paris Saint-Germain. While the French club may want to keep the midfielder, a transfer to Juventus has still been discussed as being quite possible. Rabiot possesses some interesting skill sets that could suit Sarri’s system. He’d most likely slot in the right central midfield position due to his quality in quick-passing and well-roundedness. However, he could also make a case for the holding midfielder position if he is able to learn the system. He also represents height and a bit of a physical prescience in the midfield, which is lacking in the side. Paul Pogba, 26, Manchester United Another option is Paul Pogba. He’s been linked with a move back to Juventus, given the rumors of him being unsettled at Manchester United. Pogba flourished under the Turin side, earning him a move back to the club who developed him. Pogba contains similar qualities to Rabiot, but has an incredible passing range and creativity within the final third, which would probably see him play in the left sided center midfield role. The biggest issue I could see would be the strictness of Sarri’s system. While Pogba would be able to play the highest up the pitch of the theee midfielders, he can tend to roam to fit the conditions of the game. It’s what makes him so unpredictable and decisive in matches, and the system may hinder that. Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, 24, Lazio A third option could be Sergej Milinkovic-Savic. He was tipped for a move to Juventus after an incredible 2017/2018 season, but had a poor World Cup. This season has seen a bit in the drop of form for the Serbian, which may have lowered his price. Again, another creative central midfielder who is a physical presence, but SMS may be the most accustomed to Serie A currently. All three of the players I just talked about represent great quality in the central midfield, but that position is perhaps the lowest priority in terms of current depth. Barring a few transfers, there are solid options in the midfield. With Ramsey coming in as well, it just might not be worth it to splash the cash on these players, despite their immense quality. Rabiot coming on a free should help his cause though, and may see Matuidi or Khedira (or both) moved as a result. Let’s look at a few left-field options, in terms of both transfer potential and fit within the side. Jorginho, 27, Chelsea Jorginho was always going to be brought up as soon as the news hit that Sarri was off to Juventus. He knows the system better than anyone else, and represents exactly what Sarri wants in his holding midfielder. The problem comes with the fact that Chelsea are about to be put under transfer embargo, and their options in the defensive midfield are limited. If Frank Lampard is to make the switch to Chelsea, it may be hard to see the Italian’s limited but quality skill set being utilized. He would come at an enormous price, and I already believe Pjanic can fill the role just as well. Gonzalo Higuaín, 31, Juventus (On Loan to Chelsea) I’ve mentioned Gonzalo Higuaín already, and he is set to return from loan. Sarri has already stated that he will accept the Argentinian should he decide to stay, but he will not be impressed with the striker’s return in the last half-season. It’s clear he has regressed quite a bit, and would certainly play second fiddle to Ronaldo or Dybala, depending on who Sarri wants up top. Whether or not he is ok with that is up to Higuaín, but I cannot see him returning to his blistering Napoli form. I wouldn’t be surprised if he elects to move elsewhere. Kalidou Koulibaly, 28, Napoli Kalidou Koulibaly is most certainly not going to move to Juventus, despite him potentially being an incredible fit within this side. De Laurentiis has already given a hands-off price for Koulibaly, and it’s unlikely that Juventus will go for him, no matter how quality he is.
Projected Lineup
Given everything we have so far, what could Juventus’s team sheet look like on the first game week? Let’s take a look at a couple lineups that could happen given different circumstances. First, I have some predicted transfers going in and out of the club. Projected Transfers Transfers In Ramsey Trippier Rabiot De Ligt One more signing perhaps not mentioned yet (SMS still as a possibility) Transfers Out Cancelo Khedira Matuidi One of Manduzkic or Higuaín One of Cuadrado or Dybala The Current Depth Chart https://preview.redd.it/xq6jhir6m8631.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=6aaa0b62c0855fd57812d6440635f34fad5b0993 Currently, Juventus have some decent options. They could definitely fill out a title-winning side, but there are concerns about the midfield depth being able to adjust to Sarri’s tactics, and if Cancelo is actually going to be with the team this year. Center back depth is also a concern, especially with the aging starters. Again, potential concerns that need to be addressed in the transfer window. The Left Wing Ronaldo Squad https://preview.redd.it/r7c2302am8631.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=c34622e1304492ccfca3091701ee08ea84ca97b8 If Ronaldo does end up on the left side, which could end up being a good position for him, I imagine Dybala will shift into the striker role. This allows Bernardeschi to step into the right wing role. The Transfer Team https://preview.redd.it/t22ono5em8631.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ef033ab493d7f52fb0957ae457789776e5c279b Rabiot becomes an instant starter within the side, filling in well on the right side. Bentacur will still see plenty of time from the bench, as I imagine he will be one of the first subs on. De Ligt also sees himself slot into the team in my opinion, as he represents great quality that doesn’t need much time to adjust to the Sarri system. Sarri may want to keep Bonucci and Chiellini together at the start as their experience together will be important at the start of the season. But I think De Ligt could force his way into the side immediately. Trippier would be in the team as well, although De Sciglio will still see time early as Sarri will look to see who settles better. If SMS or Pogba is to come, then Ramsey may be shifted out of the starting eleven. The Inversion https://preview.redd.it/ikdw243im8631.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=f0bb02543090b74c61bc61dfcdaf186c41a76659 On paper, this seems like almost the exact same squad with Rabiot and Ramsey switched. But Sarri has said he will assess the players and then work on the tactics, not the other way around. In my opinion, he doesn’t have to go all that far to change his system to get the best out of his players. If he focuses attacks on the right side and pushes up the right side further than the left, he solves a lot of the positional and left-footed issues. Dybala is allowed to play higher and work inside on his left foot. Douglas Costa operates as a traditional winger and can cross on his left foot. Trippier is allowed to play higher up the pitch, maximizing his offensive output. Ramsey and Rabiot each play on their strong foot. The only potential loser would be Alex Sandro, who may not be able to play as high up as he would like. If Sarri does want to bring his style of play and play to the squad’s individual strengths, this may be an idea worth investigating. But remember, I’m just some guy on the internet making tactical predictions. The Old Ways https://preview.redd.it/ozno7v0lm8631.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=85099f5cbc86bc41f4b47955256b659a29437740 Sarri hasn’t always played his 4-3-3. At Empoli, he would often play a 4-3-1-2, which would be in some players’ best interests. Ronaldo would work with a second striker like he’s done many times before, Dybala gets to play at the ten, and the midfield three remains mostly the same. This could be viable if Costa is transferred and both Higuaín and Manduzkic are kept. If Sarri wants to roll the dice, maybe he could employ this strategy. He’s not a man known for rotation or changing of style, but if he is willing to adapt, maybe he could go back to his roots.
Conclusion
Sarri will definitely have his hands full this summer in terms of decisions. He should be fine in terms of system, and should be thrilled at the quality and versatility of the players at his disposal. He will have to get to work on instilling a system into a team that was used to rotation and constant changes. He’ll also have to make sure he can get the team to press the way he wants. There are a lot of questions up front that Sarri has to get right immediately. His options in the midfield are impressive and he could even afford to sell off a few midfielders should Rabiot, SMS, or Pogba make their way to the Allianz. Pjanic will have to quickly understand his role, but Sarri should be excited about his potential to succeed Jorginho. The right back spot will need to be filled, and if the answer is Trippier, Sarri will need to help him rediscover his quality. The center back pairing of Chiellini and Bonucci should have no issue, and if De Ligt is on the way, perhaps he will be in line to replace one of them (Bonucci being the likelier candidate to be replaced). There are a lot of question marks for Juventus, but the future looks promising. There’s one thing for certain, though: Sarri begins his reign at the Allianz, and it will be interesting to see how he may utilize his notorious system for Juventus. If I missed anything or if you have better suggestions, let me know, as this is my first foray into a more tactical analysis.
Site for soccer football statistics, predictions, bet tips, results and team information. Bet tips | Football predictions | 365bet. Maccabi Haifa 2: 1: Hapoel Haifa 29 1: details: Maccabi Tel Aviv 2 Site for soccer football statistics, predictions, bet tips, results and team information. Free access to well researched prediction from experienced sport analysts everyday. 10 February, 2021 10:08 Multi Correct Score. Silver Categories. Home/Away WEH. First Half Goals. Over 1.5 HT. Under 1.5 HT . Under 3.5. First Half Winner. Half Time Draw. Corner. Value Bet. Full Time Predictions. Gold Categories. Both Team To Score. Over 2.5 FT. Under 2.5 FT. Combo. Multi-Goal. Most Scoring Our free football tips are your one-stop solution for season leagues and international matches. Get ahead of other players and fraudulent information that hurt your chances of winning. Be a real player with our professionally generated betting odds and live score. Getfree.bet is a haven for professional gamblers to minimize the risk on their hard-earned cash. Correct Score Tips Example. Here is an example of our football correct score predictions: Chelsea to beat Arsenal 3-0 and Manchester City to beat Manchester United 3-1. How to Bet on Correct Score Tips? You should start by picking correct scores or trust our football correct score predictions. Then, all you have to do is add your selections to Before we tell you the three essential tips required to make your football predictions successful, you should know that the first step will be to estimate the likelihood of your intended bet being a successful one. Probability 1 X 2, Over/Under 2.5, Both Teams to Score, Correct Score, football prediction website that guarantees real football predictions on every market available. Every day of the week, our team of expert analysts and statisticians are working tirelessly to guarantee our Bet tips | Football predictions | 365bet. League Home team Predicted score Away team Tip; Austria --> Bundesliga: Salzburg A correct score prediction is a forecast of what the final score in a football/soccer game will be after regulation time has been played. Prior to kick-off, bookmakers offer a range of odds on several of the most common scores in a match. Let's say that you think that Tottenham will beat Arsenal, and that you think that the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time will be 1-0. You can take the odds on offer from the bookie at that score and if the score ends at 1-0 to Spurs, you win 1960Tips is the #1 football and soccer free Prediction site in the world with best football betting tips, analysis and soccer prediction on over and under 2.5, btts, corners, cards, sure odds and more. For more free soccer prediction and best football tips, visit us @ 1960tips.com now.
Betfair football trading strategies - Estimating correct ...
This channel is about sports predictions and betting strategies on how to win bet everyday in 2020I provide daily betting tips with HIGHEST excellent winning... In this video I discuss a simplistic approach to estimating correct score odds by deriving them from the match odds markets. You can do this automatically in... 8 MATCHES FREE PREDICTIONS Betting Tips Football Predictions For Today - Gio Predictor 🔥 Let's hit 40K, Subscribe Here ☛https://youtube.com/bethack 🔥 ... Lets Hit 20K SubscribersFOOTBALL PREDICTIONS FOR TODAY BETTING STRATEGYBETTING TIPS FREE FIXED MATCHES MORE TIPS.www.dailybettingtipz.com and also you ca... add up on Whatsapp to get daily corect scorewa.me/6183501025wa.me/6183501025wa.me/6183501025wa.me/6183501025FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS FOR TODAY BETTING STRATEGY... BETSLIP #03 2+ ODDS FREE FOOTBALL BETTING TIPS 🔥 Let's hit 40K, Subscribe Here ☛https://youtube.com/bethack 🔥 Sub to my Gaming Channel ☛https://bit.ly/3...
